Statement 5: Revenue (Continued)
Receipts growth
Individuals' income and other withholding taxation receipts
Receipts from gross income tax withholding (ITW) have grown over 9 per cent in both 2010‑11 and 2011‑12. In 2012‑13, receipts from ITW are expected to grow by 5.3 per cent ($7.5 billion), reflecting more moderate growth in wages and salaries and tax cuts associated with the Clean Energy Future Package announced in the 2011‑12 MYEFO. In 2013‑14, receipts from ITW are expected to grow by 8.6 per cent ($12.9 billion) as wages growth strengthens. In 2014‑15 receipts from ITW are expected to grow by 8.2 per cent ($13.4 billion) partly reflecting the increase in the Medicare levy by half a percentage point from 1 July 2014 to provide strong and stable funding for DisabilityCare Australia.
In the projection years, receipts from ITW grow by 7.9 per cent ($13.9 billion) in 2015‑16 and 6.6 per cent ($12.6 billion) in 2016‑17. The growth in ITW receipts in the projection years returns to trend, reflecting longer‑term growth in wages and salaries, consistent with the projection year parameters.
Gross other individuals (OI) receipts are expected to grow by 6.9 per cent ($2.2 billion) in 2012‑13, reflecting solid growth in non‑wage income. In 2013‑14, receipts from OI are expected to grow slower by 3.3 per cent ($1.1 billion), largely due to changes to the tax scales associated with the Clean Energy Future Package and the effect of lower nominal GDP growth in 2012‑13 on expected instalment payments. From 2014‑15 to the end of the forward estimates, receipts from OI are expected to grow above trend as the stock of capital losses are utilised and capital gain income recovers.
Income tax refunds for individuals, which have a negative impact on receipts, are expected to grow by 4.7 per cent ($1.2 billion) in 2012‑13, mainly reflecting individuals' income tax assessments for 2011‑12. Individuals' refunds are then expected to grow by 0.2 per cent ($50 million) in 2013‑14 as a result of weaker expected individuals' income in 2012‑13. In the projection years, refunds for individuals are expected to return to longer‑term trend growth.
Receipts from fringe benefits tax (FBT) are expected to grow by 3.5 per cent ($129 million) in 2012‑13 (following 13 per cent growth in 2011‑12), reflecting modest growth in average wages. FBT growth is expected to be 10.6 per cent ($410 million) in 2013‑14 and 9.1 per cent ($390 million) in 2014‑15, primarily reflecting previously announced policy, particularly the reform of the statutory formula method for valuing car fringe benefits. In the projection years, FBT is expected to return to growth consistent with growth in wages and salaries.
Company and other related income taxation receipts
Company tax is expected to fall by 0.9 per cent ($584 million) in 2012‑13, reflecting an expected fall in corporate profitability. In 2013‑14, company tax receipts are expected to grow by 8.6 per cent ($5.7 billion), due to the introduction of monthly pay‑as‑you‑go instalments for large companies, as announced at the 2012‑13 MYEFO which results in a one‑off bring‑forward of payments.
Over 2014‑15 and the projection years, receipts from company tax are expected to grow by 1.6 per cent ($1.2 billion) in 2014‑15, 7.8 per cent ($5.7 billion) in 2015‑16 and 5.5 per cent ($4.4 billion) in 2016‑17. These varying growth rates also reflect the effect of the pay‑as‑you‑go policy change and the Protecting the corporate tax base from base erosion and loopholes package, before returning to more normal rates of growth in line with corporate gross operating surplus projections.
Superannuation funds
Receipts from superannuation funds are expected to grow by 1.6 per cent ($118 million) in 2012‑13 and 8.6 per cent ($660 million) in 2013‑14, reflecting a modest recovery from the GFC lows in wage and salaries growth and asset prices.
The growth in superannuation fund receipts accelerates in 2014‑15 and the projection years as the effect of GFC related losses unwinds and policy changes begin to take effect. These policy reforms include the gradual increase in the Superannuation Guarantee rate from 9 to 12 per cent and the timing effects of the pay‑as‑you‑go policy change. Note that revenue expected to be raised by the Sustaining the Superannuation Contribution Concession has been reclassified to other individuals.
Resource rent taxes
Gross resource rent taxes (comprising MRRT and PRRT) are expected to grow by $1.4 billion in 2013‑14 and $400 million in 2014‑15. MRRT is expected to increase significantly over the forward estimates reflecting strong volumes and lower capital investment as the economy transitions from the investment phase of the mining boom towards a record expansion in resources production and exports. Net MRRT is expected to grow by $500 million in 2013‑14 and $300 million in 2014‑15. In the projection years, net MRRT is expected to grow by $400 million in 2015‑16 and $800 million in 2016‑17.
PRRT receipts are expected to decrease in 2012‑13, reflecting in part the ongoing dampening impact of a high exchange rate, a softening in petroleum prices and lower assumed production levels across a number of fields. PRRT receipts are expected to return towards long run trends over the forward estimates, mainly reflecting anticipated cost and production trends.
Goods and services tax
Goods and services tax (GST) receipts are expected to increase by 4.5 per cent ($2.1 billion) in 2012‑13. In 2013‑14, GST receipts are expected to grow by 5.3 per cent ($2.5 billion) reflecting growth in taxable consumption and dwelling investment. GST receipts are expected to grow by 5.1 per cent ($2.6 billion) in 2014‑15 and, in the projection years, 5.6 per cent ($3.0 billion) in 2015‑16 and 5.1 per cent ($2.9 billion) in 2016‑17.
Excise and customs duty
Receipts from excise are expected to increase by 0.1 per cent ($25 million) in 2012‑13, mostly due to diesel excise offset by falls in other categories. In 2013‑14, excise receipts are expected to increase by 3.9 per cent ($1.0 billion), partly due to an extra payment day for collections. Receipts in 2014‑15 are expected to grow by 1.1 per cent ($290 million) which is lower than trend growth due to fewer collections days than the previous year. In the projection years, excise duties are expected to grow in line with long‑term trends.
Customs duties are expected to grow by 20.9 per cent ($1.5 billion) in 2012‑13, reflecting strength in excise‑like goods. In 2013‑14, customs duty receipts are expected to grow by 4.3 per cent ($360 million), reflecting strength in most sources of customs duty. In 2014‑15, customs duty is expected to increase by 1.7 per cent ($150 million), reflecting strength in most sources of duty, but offset by a reduction in the rate of duty applied to textiles, clothing and footwear. Customs duties are expected to return to more normal rates of growth in 2016‑17.
Carbon pricing mechanism
Receipts from the carbon pricing mechanism are expected to grow by around 50 per cent in 2013‑14 largely reflecting the arrangements for sales of permits under the fixed‑price and floating‑price periods, and that 2012‑13 is the first year of the mechanism. The 2013‑14 receipts capture the wash‑up payments for 2012‑13 fixed‑price permits, the progressive payment for 2013‑14 fixed‑price permits, and the commencement of auctions of floating price permits for the years 2015‑16 and 2016‑17.
Following modest growth in 2014‑15, carbon pricing mechanism receipts are expected to fall 27 per cent in 2015‑16 following the end of the fixed price period in 2014‑15 and the link to the European price in 2015‑16. Receipts are projected to fall a further 27 per cent in 2016‑17 largely because there are no longer any fixed‑price receipts.
Non‑taxation receipts
Non‑taxation receipts (including Future Fund earnings) are expected to increase by 21 per cent ($4.2 billion) in 2012‑13, and decrease by 12.3 per cent ($3.0 billion) in 2013‑14. The increase in 2012‑13 is largely a consequence of the sale of 15 year licences of 800MHz spectrum and changed arrangements for unclaimed superannuation funds and unclaimed company, bank account and life insurance monies.
| Actual | Estimates | Projections | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011‑12 $m |
2012‑13 $m |
2013‑14 $m |
2014‑15 $m |
2015‑16 $m |
2016‑17 $m | |||
| Individuals' and other withholding taxes | ||||||||
| Gross income tax withholding | 142,770 | 150,300 | 163,200 | 176,600 | 190,500 | 203,100 | ||
| Gross other individuals | 31,141 | 33,300 | 34,400 | 38,400 | 43,200 | 47,900 | ||
| less: Refunds | 25,537 | 26,750 | 26,800 | 28,350 | 30,250 | 32,100 | ||
| Total individuals' and other withholding tax | 148,373 | 156,850 | 170,800 | 186,650 | 203,450 | 218,900 | ||
| Fringe benefits tax | 3,731 | 3,860 | 4,270 | 4,660 | 5,000 | 5,310 | ||
| Company tax | 66,584 | 66,000 | 71,650 | 72,800 | 78,450 | 82,800 | ||
| Superannuation funds | 7,562 | 7,680 | 8,340 | 10,040 | 12,650 | 14,050 | ||
| Resource rent taxes(a) | 1,463 | 1,710 | 3,100 | 3,500 | 4,210 | 5,300 | ||
| Income taxation receipts | 227,714 | 236,100 | 258,160 | 277,650 | 303,760 | 326,360 | ||
| Sales taxes | ||||||||
| Goods and services tax | 45,861 | 47,918 | 50,443 | 53,019 | 56,009 | 58,890 | ||
| Wine equalisation tax | 708 | 720 | 770 | 810 | 860 | 910 | ||
| Luxury car tax | 435 | 430 | 400 | 360 | 390 | 420 | ||
| Total sales taxes | 47,004 | 49,068 | 51,613 | 54,189 | 57,259 | 60,220 | ||
| Excise duty | ||||||||
| Petrol | 6,036 | 6,000 | 5,900 | 5,850 | 5,900 | 6,000 | ||
| Diesel | 8,231 | 8,600 | 9,100 | 9,200 | 9,400 | 9,700 | ||
| Beer | 1,938 | 1,950 | 2,020 | 2,090 | 2,210 | 2,330 | ||
| Other excisable products(b) | 9,340 | 9,020 | 9,540 | 9,710 | 9,840 | 10,130 | ||
| of which: Other excisable beverages(c) | 909 | 900 | 960 | 1,000 | 1,050 | 1,110 | ||
| Total excise duty receipts | 25,545 | 25,570 | 26,560 | 26,850 | 27,350 | 28,160 | ||
| Customs duty | ||||||||
| Textiles, clothing and footwear | 655 | 680 | 710 | 560 | 410 | 440 | ||
| Passenger motor vehicles | 805 | 920 | 920 | 990 | 1,060 | 1,140 | ||
| Excise-like goods(b) | 4,307 | 5,660 | 5,850 | 6,010 | 6,220 | 6,510 | ||
| Other imports | 1,440 | 1,530 | 1,600 | 1,670 | 1,790 | 1,910 | ||
| less: Refunds and drawbacks | 212 | 330 | 260 | 260 | 260 | 260 | ||
| Total customs duty receipts | 6,996 | 8,460 | 8,820 | 8,970 | 9,220 | 9,740 | ||
| Carbon pricing mechanism | - | 4,160 | 6,265 | 6,395 | 4,645 | 3,395 | ||
| Other indirect taxation | ||||||||
| Agricultural levies | 421 | 463 | 443 | 434 | 440 | 446 | ||
| Other taxes | 2,263 | 2,476 | 2,992 | 3,263 | 3,136 | 3,173 | ||
| Total other indirect taxation receipts | 2,684 | 2,939 | 3,436 | 3,697 | 3,575 | 3,619 | ||
| Indirect taxation receipts | 82,229 | 90,197 | 96,694 | 100,101 | 102,049 | 105,134 | ||
| Taxation receipts | 309,943 | 326,297 | 354,854 | 377,751 | 405,809 | 431,494 | ||
| Sales of goods and services | 7,778 | 9,043 | 8,639 | 8,409 | 8,562 | 8,726 | ||
| Interest received | 4,267 | 3,674 | 4,074 | 4,055 | 4,575 | 4,837 | ||
| Dividends | 1,789 | 3,186 | 2,526 | 2,317 | 2,520 | 2,571 | ||
| Other non-taxation receipts | 6,098 | 8,211 | 5,901 | 8,638 | 7,464 | 6,015 | ||
| Non-taxation receipts | 19,931 | 24,113 | 21,140 | 23,419 | 23,121 | 22,149 | ||
| Total receipts | 329,874 | 350,410 | 375,993 | 401,171 | 428,931 | 453,642 | ||
| Memorandum: | ||||||||
| Capital gains tax(d) | 6,000 | 6,600 | 8,100 | 11,100 | 13,600 | 15,900 | ||
| Medicare levy receipts | 9,119 | 9,720 | 10,300 | 14,190 | 15,230 | 16,200 | ||
(a) Comprises gross receipts from the PRRT and MRRT. Net receipts from the MRRT are expected to be $0.2 billion in 2012‑13, $0.7 billion in 2013‑14, $1.0 billion in 2014‑15, $1.4 billion in 2015‑16 and $2.2 billion in 2016‑17 which represent the net receipt impact across different revenue heads. These include offsetting reductions in company tax (through deductibility) and interactions with other taxes.
(b) Tobacco estimates are not separately reported due to taxpayer confidentiality. See Budget Statement 9, note 3, footnote (b) for more information.
(c) Other excisable beverages are those not exceeding 10 per cent by volume of alcohol (excluding beer, brandy and wine).
(d) Capital gains tax is part of other individuals, companies and superannuation funds tax. The 2011‑12 reported figure is an estimate.
Revenue variations since the 2012‑13 MYEFO
The revenue estimates are the accrual accounting equivalent of the cash‑based receipts estimates. Changes in revenue are generally driven by the same factors — policy as well as parameter variation — as receipts. Where the revenue and receipts estimates tend to vary is in terms of the timing of their impacts.
Table 8 provides a reconciliation of the Budget's revenue estimates with those at the 2012‑13 MYEFO.
| Estimates | Projections | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012‑13 $m |
2013‑14 $m |
2014‑15 $m |
2015‑16 $m |
||
| Revenue at 2012‑13 MYEFO | 373,739 | 403,161 | 421,871 | 446,438 | |
| Changes from 2012‑13 MYEFO to 2013‑14 Budget | |||||
| Effect of policy decisions(a) | -36 | 111 | 5,533 | 9,766 | |
| Effect of parameter and other variations | -13,742 | -15,523 | -15,792 | -18,108 | |
| Total variations | -13,778 | -15,412 | -10,260 | -8,342 | |
| Revenue at 2013‑14 Budget | 359,961 | 387,749 | 411,612 | 438,097 | |
(a) Excludes secondary impacts on public debt interest of policy decisions and offsets from the contingency reserve for decisions taken.
Since the 2012‑13 MYEFO, total revenue has been revised down by $15.4 billion in 2012‑13 and by $10.3 billion in 2013‑14. The factors affecting downward revisions to tax receipts are also at play with regards to revenue write‑downs.
| Actual | Estimates | Projections | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011‑12 $m |
2012‑13 $m |
2013‑14 $m |
2014‑15 $m |
2015‑16 $m |
2016‑17 $m |
|||
| Individuals' and other withholding taxes | ||||||||
| Gross income tax withholding | 143,978 | 151,660 | 164,660 | 178,100 | 192,120 | 204,820 | ||
| Gross other individuals | 32,992 | 35,940 | 37,490 | 41,580 | 46,640 | 51,580 | ||
| less: Refunds | 25,537 | 26,750 | 26,800 | 28,350 | 30,250 | 32,100 | ||
| Total individuals' and other withholding tax | 151,433 | 160,850 | 175,350 | 191,330 | 208,510 | 224,300 | ||
| Fringe benefits tax | 3,964 | 3,890 | 4,320 | 4,740 | 5,080 | 5,390 | ||
| Company tax | 66,726 | 68,132 | 73,969 | 74,860 | 80,666 | 85,213 | ||
| Superannuation funds | 7,852 | 7,800 | 8,480 | 10,210 | 12,850 | 14,270 | ||
| Resource rent taxes(a) | 1,293 | 1,740 | 3,420 | 3,530 | 4,180 | 5,340 | ||
| Income taxation revenue | 231,268 | 242,412 | 265,539 | 284,670 | 311,286 | 334,513 | ||
| Sales taxes | ||||||||
| Goods and services tax | 48,849 | 50,220 | 53,080 | 55,760 | 58,920 | 61,830 | ||
| Wine equalisation tax | 716 | 730 | 780 | 820 | 870 | 920 | ||
| Luxury car tax | 440 | 430 | 400 | 360 | 390 | 420 | ||
| Total sales taxes | 50,004 | 51,380 | 54,260 | 56,940 | 60,180 | 63,170 | ||
| Excise duty | ||||||||
| Petrol | 6,016 | 6,000 | 5,790 | 5,870 | 5,920 | 6,000 | ||
| Diesel | 8,203 | 8,610 | 8,920 | 9,230 | 9,430 | 9,710 | ||
| Beer | 1,932 | 1,950 | 1,980 | 2,100 | 2,220 | 2,330 | ||
| Other excisable products(b) | 9,329 | 9,030 | 9,360 | 9,750 | 9,880 | 10,130 | ||
| of which: Other excisable beverages(c) | 906 | 900 | 960 | 1,000 | 1,050 | 1,110 | ||
| Total excise duty revenue | 25,480 | 25,590 | 26,050 | 26,950 | 27,450 | 28,170 | ||
| Customs duty | ||||||||
| Textiles, clothing and footwear | 655 | 680 | 710 | 560 | 410 | 440 | ||
| Passenger motor vehicles | 903 | 920 | 920 | 990 | 1,060 | 1,140 | ||
| Excise-like goods(b) | 4,307 | 5,660 | 5,850 | 6,010 | 6,220 | 6,510 | ||
| Other imports | 1,441 | 1,540 | 1,610 | 1,670 | 1,790 | 1,910 | ||
| less: Refunds and drawbacks | 202 | 330 | 260 | 260 | 260 | 260 | ||
| Total customs duty revenue | 7,105 | 8,470 | 8,830 | 8,970 | 9,220 | 9,740 | ||
| Carbon pricing mechanism | - | 7,540 | 8,340 | 9,270 | 4,090 | 6,110 | ||
| Other indirect taxation | ||||||||
| Agricultural levies | 421 | 463 | 443 | 434 | 440 | 446 | ||
| Other taxes | 2,501 | 2,871 | 3,202 | 3,372 | 3,309 | 3,446 | ||
| Total other indirect taxation revenue | 2,922 | 3,335 | 3,646 | 3,806 | 3,748 | 3,892 | ||
| Indirect taxation revenue | 85,511 | 96,315 | 101,126 | 105,936 | 104,688 | 111,082 | ||
| Taxation revenue | 316,779 | 338,727 | 366,664 | 390,606 | 415,974 | 445,595 | ||
| Sales of goods and services | 8,106 | 8,757 | 8,577 | 8,443 | 8,614 | 8,776 | ||
| Interest | 4,617 | 3,764 | 4,313 | 4,477 | 4,980 | 5,448 | ||
| Dividends | 2,662 | 2,429 | 2,426 | 2,265 | 2,476 | 2,604 | ||
| Other non-taxation revenue | 5,945 | 6,284 | 5,768 | 5,820 | 6,052 | 6,146 | ||
| Non-taxation revenue | 21,330 | 21,234 | 21,085 | 21,006 | 22,122 | 22,974 | ||
| Total revenue | 338,109 | 359,961 | 387,749 | 411,612 | 438,097 | 468,569 | ||
| Memorandum: | ||||||||
| Capital gains tax(d) | 6,000 | 6,600 | 8,100 | 11,100 | 13,600 | 15,900 | ||
| Medicare levy revenue | 9,119 | 9,720 | 10,300 | 14,190 | 15,230 | 16,200 | ||
(a) Comprises gross revenue from the PRRT and MRRT. Net revenue from the MRRT are expected to be $0.2 billion in 2012‑13, $0.7 billion in 2013‑14, $1.0 billion in 2014‑15, $1.4 billion in 2015‑16 and $2.2 billion in 2016‑17 which represent the net revenue impact across different revenue heads. These include offsetting reductions in company tax (through deductibility) and interactions with other taxes.
(b) Tobacco estimates are not separately reported due to taxpayer confidentiality. See Budget Statement 9, note 3, footnote (b) for more information.
(c) Other excisable beverages are those not exceeding 10 per cent by volume of alcohol (excluding beer, brandy and wine).
(d) Capital gains tax is part of other individuals, companies and superannuation funds tax. The 2011‑12 reported figure is an estimate.
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