Appendix F - Detailed economic forecasts (a)
The table below shows the Government's macroeconomic forecasts. More comprehensive information is provided in Budget Paper No. 1, Statement 2.
| Outcomes(b) | Forecasts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-13 | 2013-14 | 2014-15 | 2015-16 | |
| Panel A ‑ Demand and output(c) | ||||
| Household consumption | 2.0 | 2 1/2 | 3 | 3 1/4 |
| Private investment | ||||
| Dwellings | -0.1 | 3 1/2 | 7 1/2 | 5 1/2 |
| Total business investment(d) | 6.1 | -4 | -5 1/2 | -3 1/2 |
| Non-dwelling construction(d) | 13.9 | -2 1/2 | -9 1/2 | -12 1/2 |
| Machinery and equipment(d) | -4.3 | -9 1/2 | -2 | 7 |
| Private final demand(d) | 2.8 | 1 1/4 | 1 1/2 | 2 |
| Public final demand(d) | -1.3 | 1 3/4 | 1 1/2 | 1 |
| Total final demand | 1.9 | 1 1/2 | 1 1/2 | 1 3/4 |
| Change in inventories(e) | -0.3 | - 1/4 | 1/4 | 0 |
| Gross national expenditure | 1.6 | 1 1/4 | 1 3/4 | 1 3/4 |
| Exports of goods and services | 6.0 | 5 1/2 | 5 1/2 | 7 |
| Imports of goods and services | 0.5 | -3 | 2 | 2 1/2 |
| Net exports(e) | 1.2 | 1 3/4 | 1 | 1 1/4 |
| Real gross domestic product | 2.6 | 2 3/4 | 2 1/2 | 3 |
| Non-farm product | 2.8 | 2 3/4 | 2 3/4 | 3 |
| Farm product | -3.6 | 5 | -4 | 1 |
| Nominal gross domestic product | 2.5 | 4 | 3 | 4 3/4 |
| Panel B - Other selected economic measures | ||||
| External accounts | ||||
| Terms of trade | -9.8 | -5 | -6 3/4 | -1 3/4 |
| Current account balance (per cent of GDP) | -3.6 | -3 1/4 | -4 | -3 3/4 |
| Labour market | ||||
| Employment(f) | 1.2 | 3/4 | 1 1/2 | 1 1/2 |
| Unemployment rate (per cent)(g) | 5.6 | 6 | 6 1/4 | 6 1/4 |
| Participation rate (per cent)(g) | 65.1 | 64 3/4 | 64 1/2 | 64 1/2 |
| Prices and wages | ||||
| Consumer price index(h) | 2.4 | 3 1/4 | 2 1/4 | 2 1/2 |
| Gross non-farm product deflator | -0.3 | 1 1/4 | 1/2 | 1 3/4 |
| Wage price index(f) | 2.9 | 2 3/4 | 3 | 3 |
- (a) Percentage change on preceding year unless otherwise indicated.
- (b) Calculated using original data unless otherwise indicated.
- (c) Chain volume measures except for nominal gross domestic product which is in current prices.
- (d) Excluding second-hand asset sales between the public and private sectors.
- (e) Percentage point contribution to growth in GDP.
- (f) Seasonally adjusted, through‑the‑year growth rate to the June quarter.
- (g) Seasonally adjusted rate for the June quarter.
- (h) Through-the-year growth rate to the June quarter.
Note: The forecasts for the domestic economy are based on several technical assumptions. The exchange rate is assumed to remain around its recent average level — a trade‑weighted index of around 71 and a $US exchange rate of around 93 US cents. Interest rates are assumed to move broadly in line with market expectations. World oil prices (Malaysian Tapis) are assumed to remain around US$113 per barrel. The farm sector forecasts are based on an assumption of average seasonal conditions in 2014‑15 and 2015‑16.