In August 1996, the Commonwealth provided (in Chapter V of Budget Paper No. 3 1996-97) a budget time LCA estimate of $3.5 billion, incorporating the then estimated headline budget surplus of $474 million. As reported at the time, the reduction from the nominated figure exceeded the lower bound of the tolerance limit of 2 per cent of public sector revenue.
A revised LCA estimate of $5.8 billion was provided in the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook 1996-97 (MYEFO) (Table 28), incorporating an estimated headline budget deficit of $2.7 billion.
The current estimate of the Commonwealth's 1996-97 LCA outcome is $5.0 billion. The deterioration from the budget time estimate of $3.5 billion reflects the increase in the underlying budget deficit noted in Statement 1 of Budget Paper No. 1, and slippage in the timing of some asset sales into 1997-98. The recapitalisation of Telstra affects the LCA components but not the total.
The changes through the course of the year in the Commonwealth's 1996-97 LCA and its main components are shown in Table 21. The Commonwealth's actual LCA outcome will be reported in the document, Final Budget Outcome 1996-97.