Appendix H Detailed economic forecasts
The table below shows the Government's macroeconomic forecasts(a). The Australian economy is expected to grow by 2¾ per cent in 2013‑14 and 3 per cent in 2014‑15. More comprehensive information is provided in Budget Paper No. 1, Budget Strategy and Outlook 2012‑13, Statement 2.
| Outcomes (b) | Forecasts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011‑12 | 2012‑13 | 2013‑14 | 2014‑15 | |
| Panel A - Demand and output(c) | ||||
| Household consumption | 3.2 | 2 1/2 | 3 | 3 |
| Private investment | ||||
| Dwellings | -3.6 | 1/2 | 5 | 5 1/2 |
| Total business investment(d) | 20.8 | 10 1/2 | 4 1/2 | 1 |
| Non-dwelling construction(d) | 37.6 | 18 1/2 | 5 | -2 1/2 |
| Machinery and equipment(d) | 10.1 | 1 1/2 | 2 1/2 | 5 |
| Private final demand(d) | 6.2 | 4 | 3 1/2 | 2 3/4 |
| Public final demand(d) | 2.3 | -1/2 | 0 | 1/2 |
| Total final demand | 5.3 | 3 | 2 3/4 | 2 1/4 |
| Change in inventories(e) | -0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gross national expenditure | 5.2 | 3 | 2 3/4 | 2 1/4 |
| Exports of goods and services | 4.7 | 7 | 6 1/2 | 7 |
| Imports of goods and services | 11.8 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| Net exports(e) | -1.3 | 1/2 | 0 | 1 |
| Real gross domestic product | 3.4 | 3 | 2 3/4 | 3 |
| Non-farm product | 3.3 | 3 | 2 3/4 | 3 1/4 |
| Farm product | 9.0 | -8 | 4 | 0 |
| Nominal gross domestic product | 5.0 | 3 1/4 | 5 | 5 |
| Panel B - Other selected economic measures | ||||
| External accounts | ||||
| Terms of trade | 0.4 | -7 1/2 | -3/4 | -1 3/4 |
| Current account balance (per cent of GDP) | -2.7 | -3 1/2 | -3 3/4 | -3 1/4 |
| Labour market | ||||
| Employment(f) | 1.2 | 1 1/4 | 1 1/4 | 1 1/2 |
| Unemployment rate (per cent)(g) | 5.1 | 5 1/2 | 5 3/4 | 5 3/4 |
| Participation rate (per cent)(g) | 65.3 | 65 | 65 | 65 |
| Prices and wages | ||||
| Consumer price index(h) | 1.2 | 2 1/2 | 2 1/4 | 2 1/4 |
| Gross non-farm product deflator | 1.7 | 0 | 2 | 1 3/4 |
| Wage price index(f) | 3.7 | 3 1/2 | 3 1/2 | 3 1/2 |
(a) Percentage change on preceding year unless otherwise indicated.
(b) Calculated using original data unless otherwise indicated.
(c) Chain volume measures except for nominal gross domestic product which is in current prices.
(d) Excluding second‑hand asset sales between the public sector and the private sector.
(e) Percentage point contribution to growth in GDP.
(f) Seasonally adjusted, through‑the‑year growth rate to the June quarter.
(g) Seasonally adjusted rate for the June quarter.
(h) Through‑the‑year growth rate for the June quarter.
Note: The forecasts for the domestic economy are based on several technical assumptions. The exchange rate is assumed to remain around its recent average level — a trade‑weighted index
of around 78 and a US$ exchange rate of around 103 US cents. Interest rates are assumed to move broadly in line with market expectations. World oil prices (Malaysian Tapis) are assumed to
remain around US$106 per barrel. The farm sector forecasts are based on average seasonal conditions.
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) cat. no. 5206.0, 5302.0, 6202.0, 6345.0, 6401.0, unpublished ABS data and Treasury.