Statement 4 (continued)

Variations in receipts estimates

Table 3 reconciles the 2015‑16 Budget's estimates of total receipts, which include non‑tax receipts, with the 2014‑15 Budget and the 2014‑15 MYEFO estimates. These differences reflect the impact of parameter and other variations and the impact of policy decisions.

Table 3: Reconciliation of Australian Government general government receipts estimates from the 2014‑15 Budget and the 2014‑15 MYEFO^(a)

	Estimates				Projections
	2014‑15 $m	2015‑16 $m	2016‑17 $m		2017‑18 $m		Total $m
Receipts at 2014‑15 Budget	385,778	410,427	436,849		467,985		1,701,040
Changes from 2014‑15 Budget to 2014‑15 MYEFO
Effect of policy decisions	‑486	‑350	‑105		‑140		‑1,082
Effect of parameter and other variations	‑5,809	‑6,714	‑7,515		‑8,040		‑28,078
Total variations	‑6,295	‑7,064	‑7,620		‑8,180		‑29,160
Receipts at 2014‑15 MYEFO	379,483	403,362	429,228		459,806		1,671,880
Changes from 2014‑15 MYEFO to 2015‑16 Budget
Effect of policy decisions	40	‑432	396		783		787
Effect of parameter and other variations	‑2,214	‑4,950	‑7,163		‑6,993		‑21,321
Total variations	‑2,174	‑5,382	‑6,767		‑6,211		‑20,535
Receipts at 2015‑16 Budget	377,309	397,980	422,461		453,595		1,651,345

(a) Includes expected Future Fund earnings.

Since the 2014‑15 MYEFO, total receipts have been revised down by around $20.5 billion in the four years to 2017‑18, reflecting a downward revision of $21.3 billion from parameter and other variations, and an increase of $0.8 billion from policy decisions. Excluding GST, total receipts have been revised down $5.2 billion in 2015‑16 and $22.1 billion over the four years to 2017‑18.

Since the 2014‑15 Budget, total receipts have been revised down by $49.7 billion over the four years to 2017‑18.

Chart 1 shows the revisions to estimates for total receipts, which includes non‑tax receipts, since the 2014‑15 MYEFO over the four years to 2017‑18. The revisions are broken down by revisions owing to policy decisions and revisions owing to parameter and other variations.

Variations in receipts can stem from either policy changes or parameter and other variations — that is, recent economic conditions, the updated economic outlook, year‑to‑date tax collections and other non‑policy factors. The key economic parameters that influence receipts are shown in Table 4. Analysis of the sensitivity of the tax receipts estimates to changes in the economic outlook is provided in Budget Statement 7.

Table 4: Key economic parameters^(a)

	Estimates				Projections
	2014‑15	2015‑16	2016‑17		2017‑18	2018‑19
Revenue parameters at 2015‑16 Budget
Nominal gross domestic product (non-farm)	1 1/2	3 1/4	5 1/2		5 1/4	5 1/2
Change since 2014‑15 MYEFO	- 1/4	-1 1/4	1/4		0	na
Compensation of employees(b)	3	3 3/4	4 1/2		4 3/4	5 1/4
Change since 2014‑15 MYEFO	- 1/2	- 1/2	- 1/4		- 1/2	na
Corporate gross operating surplus(c)	-2 3/4	1/4	7 1/2		6 1/2	5 3/4
Change since 2014‑15 MYEFO	1/2	-4	1 1/2		1	na
Unincorporated business income (non-farm)	3/4	1 1/2	4		5	5 3/4
Change since 2014‑15 MYEFO	-2 3/4	-1 1/4	1		1 1/2	na
Property income(d)	4	6	7		5 1/4	5 1/2
Change since 2014‑15 MYEFO	-1 1/2	-3 1/2	1 3/4		0	na
Consumption subject to GST	3 1/2	5 1/4	5 1/2		5 1/2	5 1/2
Change since 2014‑15 MYEFO	- 3/4	- 1/2	1/4		0	na

(a) Current prices, per cent change on previous years. Changes since the 2014‑15 MYEFO are percentage points and may not reconcile due to rounding.

(b) Compensation of employees measures total remuneration earned by employees.

(c) Corporate GOS is an Australian System of National Accounts measure of company profits, gross of depreciation.

(d) Property income measures income derived from interest, rent and dividends.

na not applicable.

Relative to the 2014‑15 MYEFO, parameter and other variations have reduced tax receipts by $2.1 billion in 2014‑15, $5.9 billion in 2015‑16 and $20.1 billion over the four years to 2017‑18 (Chart 2). Excluding GST, parameter and other variations have reduced forecast tax receipts by $2.4 billion in 2014‑15, by around $5.8 billion in 2015‑16 and by around $20.4 billion over the four years to 2017‑18.

In aggregate, tax receipts are expected to grow by 3.9 per cent in 2014‑15 and 5.3 per cent in 2015‑16. At a disaggregated level, different heads of revenue are expected to grow at different rates, with some expected to experience negative growth.

Individuals and other withholding taxation receipts

Gross income tax withholding (ITW) receipts are forecast to grow by 6.5 per cent in 2014‑15 and 6.3 per cent in 2015‑16. Relative to the 2014‑15 MYEFO, more subdued wage growth has contributed to a downward revision to ITW receipts of around $8.6 billion over the four years to 2017‑18. This downward revision has been partly offset by new policy decisions, including the effect of the introduction of a cap for salary sacrificed meal entertainment and entertainment facility leasing expenses.

Gross receipts from other individuals (OI) are expected to grow by 8.1 per cent in 2014‑15 and 8.5 per cent in 2015‑16. Since the 2014‑15 MYEFO, OI receipts are expected to be $300 million higher in 2014‑15 but $2.4 billion lower over the four years to 2017‑18. The upward revision in 2014‑15 is a result of higher‑than‑expected collections in 2014‑15. This has been more than offset by slightly weaker expected income growth, for example interest income, over the four years to 2017‑18.

Income tax refunds for individuals, which have a negative effect on receipts, are expected to decrease by 0.4 per cent in 2014‑15 and grow by 2.6 per cent in 2015‑16. Relative to the 2014‑15 MYEFO, forecast refunds are $200 million lower (an increase in overall tax receipts) in 2014‑15 and $2.3 billion lower over the four years to 2017‑18. This downward revision has been driven by lower‑than‑expected payouts for refunds in 2014‑15, lower expected ITW receipts over the four years to 2017‑18 and new policy decisions, including better targeting the Zone Tax Offset to exclude 'fly‑in fly‑out' and 'drive‑in drive‑out' workers and modernising the methods used for calculating work related car expense deductions.

Fringe benefits tax

Receipts from fringe benefits tax (FBT) are forecast to grow by 6.7 per cent in 2014‑15 and 12.2 per cent in 2015‑16. The expected growth rate in 2015‑16 for FBT is driven by the Temporary Budget Repair Levy. Since the 2014‑15 MYEFO, FBT receipts are unchanged in 2014‑15 but are expected to be $80 million lower over the four years to 2017‑18. This downgrade to forecast FBT receipts reflects lower expected wage growth.

Company tax

Company tax receipts are forecast to grow by 1.1 per cent in 2014‑15 and by 0.3 per cent in 2015‑16. Compared to the 2014‑15 MYEFO, forecast receipts are expected to be $960 million lower in 2014‑15 owing to lower‑than‑expected collections from mining companies, consistent with a lower iron ore price since the 2014‑15 MYEFO. Over the four years to 2017‑18, company tax receipts have been revised down by $7.2 billion, reflecting lower expected corporate profitability including the impact of lower commodity prices on parts of the non‑mining corporate sector. Company tax receipts have also been affected by the tax cut for small business companies and the more generous depreciation arrangements.

Superannuation fund taxes

Receipts from superannuation funds are expected to grow by 0.6 per cent in 2014‑15 and 47.9 per cent in 2015‑16. The large growth in receipts in 2015‑16 is driven by large funds commencing monthly pay‑as‑you‑go instalments as announced in the 2013‑14 Budget and an expected continued recovery in capital gains tax receipts. Since the 2014‑15 MYEFO, receipts are expected to be around $900 million lower in 2014‑15 and $1.8 billion lower over the four years to 2017‑18, reflecting the flow on effects of lower taxable income in 2013‑14 and 2014‑15 as well as lower expected net contributions owing to weaker wages. The downward revision to superannuation fund receipts in 2014‑15 primarily reflects lower‑than‑expected collections attributable to higher‑than‑expected foreign exchange losses in the 2013‑14 income year. There are no detrimental superannuation taxation measures in this Budget.

Petroleum resource rent tax

Petroleum resource rent tax (PRRT) receipts are forecast to grow by 31.6 per cent in 2014‑15 and decline by 19.4 per cent in 2015‑16. Since the 2014‑15 MYEFO, PRRT receipts are expected to be $90 million lower in 2014‑15 and $790 million lower over the four years to 2017‑18, consistent with lower expected oil prices.

Goods and services tax

Receipts from GST are forecast to grow by 5.6 per cent in 2014‑15, underpinned by solid growth in private dwelling investment and property ownership transfer costs, and 5.6 per cent in 2015‑16 in line with expected growth in consumption subject to GST. Since the 2014‑15 MYEFO, GST receipts have been revised up $1.6 billion over the four years to 2017‑18, partly underpinned by the upward revision to the 2014‑15 estimate owing to stronger‑than‑expected collections, as well as 2015‑16 Budget measures including the extension of the GST compliance program and applying GST to digital products and services imported by consumers.

Excise and customs duty

Excise and customs duty receipts are forecast to decline by 4.3 per cent in 2014‑15 and grow by 1.5 per cent in 2015‑16. Excise and customs duty receipts have been revised down from the 2014‑15 MYEFO by $520 million in 2014‑15 and $4.5 billion over the four years to 2017‑18.

Over the four years to 2017‑18, receipts from fuel products (excluding crude oil) have been revised down, consistent with weaker forecast mining investment, economic activity and inflation. Crude oil excise has also been revised down, consistent with lower expected oil prices.

Lower forecasts for tobacco consumption have led to downward revisions to tobacco excise over the four years to 2017‑18.

Other sales taxes

Other sales taxes include the wine equalisation tax (WET) and the luxury car tax (LCT).

WET receipts are forecast to grow by 1.9 per cent in 2014‑15 and 5.1 per cent in 2015‑16. Since the 2014‑15 MYEFO, forecast WET receipts have been revised down by 1.8 per cent, or $60 million, over the four years to 2017‑18, consistent with slightly lower expected prices.

LCT receipts are forecast to grow by 7.7 per cent in 2014‑15 in line with stronger‑than‑expected sales of vehicles subject to LCT. Compared with the 2014‑15 MYEFO, over the four years to 2017‑18, LCT receipts have been revised up by $240 million.

Non‑taxation receipts

Non‑taxation receipts (including Future Fund earnings) are expected to grow by 17.8 per cent in 2014‑15 and grow by 7.7 per cent in 2015‑16. This largely relates to proceeds from the sale of spectrum licences.

Non‑taxation receipts have been revised up from the 2014‑15 MYEFO by $1.1 billion in 2015‑16 and $258 million over the four years to 2017‑18. This primarily reflects lower than expected forecasts of royalties, offset by increases in other non‑taxation receipts, including the $1.5 billion of unspent funding from the Victorian Government in relation to the East West Link project required to be returned consistent with the obligations under relevant agreements with the Commonwealth.

The changes in the individual heads of revenue relative to the 2014‑15 MYEFO are shown in Table 5 and Table 6 for 2014‑15 and 2015‑16 respectively.

Table 7 shows the Australian Government general government cash receipts from 2013‑14 to 2018‑19 by head of revenue.

Table 5: Reconciliation of 2014‑15 general government (cash) receipts

	Estimates			Change on MYEFO
	MYEFO $m	Budget $m		$m	%
Individuals and other withholding taxes
Gross income tax withholding	166,700	166,300		‑400	‑0.2
Gross other individuals	37,300	37,600		300	0.8
less: Refunds	27,500	27,300		‑200	‑0.7
Total individuals and other withholding tax	176,500	176,600		100	0.1
Fringe benefits tax	4,350	4,350		0	0.0
Company tax	68,960	68,000		‑960	‑1.4
Superannuation fund taxes	7,040	6,140		‑900	‑12.8
Minerals resource rent tax(a)	60	60		0	0.0
Petroleum resource rent tax	1,890	1,800		‑90	‑4.8
Income taxation receipts	258,800	256,950		‑1,850	‑0.7
Goods and services tax	53,982	54,285		303	0.6
Wine equalisation tax	800	780		‑20	‑2.5
Luxury car tax	400	500		100	25.0
Excise and customs duty
Petrol	5,950	6,000		50	0.8
Diesel	8,930	8,800		‑130	‑1.5
Other fuel products	3,260	2,960		‑300	‑9.2
Tobacco	8,310	8,280		‑30	‑0.4
Beer	2,410	2,340		‑70	‑2.9
Spirits	1,970	1,980		10	0.5
Other alcoholic beverages(b)	950	910		‑40	‑4.2
Other customs duty
Textiles, clothing and footwear	590	650		60	10.2
Passenger motor vehicles	800	700		‑100	‑12.5
Other imports	1,570	1,600		30	1.9
less: Refunds and drawbacks	420	420		0	0.0
Total excise and customs duty	34,320	33,800		‑520	‑1.5
Carbon pricing mechanism	1,800	1,630		‑170	‑9.4
Agricultural levies	454	492		37	8.2
Other taxes	3,038	3,016		‑23	‑0.7
Indirect taxation receipts	94,794	94,502		‑292	‑0.3
Taxation receipts	353,594	351,452		‑2,142	‑0.6
Sales of goods and services	9,114	9,218		105	1.1
Interest received	3,469	3,131		‑338	‑9.7
Dividends	3,831	4,121		290	7.6
Other non‑taxation receipts	9,475	9,386		‑89	‑0.9
Non‑taxation receipts	25,889	25,856		‑33	‑0.1
Total receipts	379,483	377,309		‑2,174	‑0.6
Memorandum:
Total excise	25,260	24,050		‑1,210	‑4.8
Total customs duty	9,060	9,750		690	7.6
Capital gains tax(c)	8,900	8,900		0	0.0
Medicare and DisabilityCare Australia levy	14,130	14,050		‑80	‑0.6

(a) Net receipts from the MRRT are expected to be $40 million in 2014‑15 which represents the net receipts impact across different revenue heads. This includes the offsetting reductions in company tax (through deductibility) and interactions with other taxes. The MRRT will not apply beyond 30 September 2014.

(b) Other alcoholic beverages are those not exceeding 10 per cent by volume of alcohol (excluding beer, brandy and wine).

(c) Capital gains tax is part of gross other individuals, company tax and superannuation fund taxes.

Table 6: Reconciliation of 2015‑16 general government (cash) receipts

	Estimates			Change on MYEFO
	MYEFO $m	Budget $m		$m	%
Individuals and other withholding taxes
Gross income tax withholding	178,800	176,800		‑2,000	‑1.1
Gross other individuals	41,100	40,800		‑300	‑0.7
less: Refunds	28,100	28,000		‑100	‑0.4
Total individuals and other withholding tax	191,800	189,600		‑2,200	‑1.1
Fringe benefits tax	4,890	4,880		‑10	‑0.2
Company tax	70,800	68,200		‑2,600	‑3.7
Superannuation fund taxes	9,630	9,080		‑550	‑5.7
Minerals resource rent tax(a)	0	0		0	0.0
Petroleum resource rent tax	1,700	1,450		‑250	‑14.7
Income taxation receipts	278,820	273,210		‑5,610	‑2.0
Goods and services tax	57,468	57,316		‑153	‑0.3
Wine equalisation tax	830	820		‑10	‑1.2
Luxury car tax	360	450		90	25.0
Excise and customs duty
Petrol	6,150	6,100		‑50	‑0.8
Diesel	9,340	9,110		‑230	‑2.5
Other fuel products	3,150	2,840		‑310	‑9.8
Tobacco	9,560	9,370		‑190	‑2.0
Beer	2,470	2,390		‑80	‑3.2
Spirits	2,030	2,030		0	0.0
Other alcoholic beverages(b)	990	960		‑30	‑3.0
Other customs duty
Textiles, clothing and footwear	310	380		70	22.6
Passenger motor vehicles	520	420		‑100	‑19.2
Other imports	1,070	1,120		50	4.7
less: Refunds and drawbacks	420	420		0	0.0
Total excise and customs duty	35,170	34,300		‑870	‑2.5
Carbon pricing mechanism	0	0		0	0.0
Agricultural levies	478	472		‑6	‑1.3
Other taxes	3,477	3,573		96	2.8
Indirect taxation receipts	97,784	96,930		‑853	‑0.9
Taxation receipts	376,604	370,140		‑6,463	‑1.7
Sales of goods and services	9,202	9,475		274	3.0
Interest received	4,022	3,334		‑688	‑17.1
Dividends	3,407	4,623		1,216	35.7
Other non‑taxation receipts	10,128	10,407		279	2.8
Non‑taxation receipts	26,759	27,840		1,081	4.0
Total receipts	403,362	397,980		‑5,382	‑1.3
Memorandum:
Total excise	26,860	24,820		‑2,040	‑7.6
Total customs duty	8,310	9,480		1,170	14.1
Capital gains tax(c)	11,300	11,500		200	1.8
Medicare and DisabilityCare Australia levy	15,040	14,870		‑170	‑1.1

(a) The MRRT will not apply beyond 30 September 2014.

(b) Other alcoholic beverages are those not exceeding 10 per cent by volume of alcohol (excluding beer, brandy and wine).

(c) Capital gains tax is part of gross other individuals, company tax and superannuation fund taxes.

Table 7: Australian Government general government (cash) receipts

	Actual		Estimates				Projections
	2013‑14 $m		2014‑15 $m	2015‑16 $m	2016‑17 $m		2017‑18 $m	2018‑19 $m
Individuals and other withholding taxes
Gross income tax withholding	156,211		166,300	176,800	187,600		199,600	213,800
Gross other individuals	34,787		37,600	40,800	43,900		48,000	52,600
less: Refunds	27,407		27,300	28,000	28,400		30,000	31,600
Total individuals and other withholding tax	163,592		176,600	189,600	203,100		217,600	234,800
Fringe benefits tax	4,077		4,350	4,880	5,090		4,920	5,160
Company tax	67,273		68,000	68,200	73,800		80,200	86,200
Superannuation fund taxes	6,101		6,140	9,080	10,530		11,210	11,760
Minerals resource rent tax(a)	143		60	0	0		0	0
Petroleum resource rent tax	1,368		1,800	1,450	1,450		1,400	1,400
Income taxation receipts	242,553		256,950	273,210	293,970		315,330	339,320
Goods and services tax	51,394		54,285	57,316	61,231		64,803	68,520
Wine equalisation tax	766		780	820	850		890	940
Luxury car tax	464		500	450	400		410	420
Excise and customs duty
Petrol	6,053		6,000	6,100	6,250		6,600	7,000
Diesel	8,940		8,800	9,110	9,520		9,930	10,490
Other fuel products	3,624		2,960	2,840	2,840		2,930	3,050
Tobacco	8,498		8,280	9,370	10,180		10,410	10,720
Beer	2,348		2,340	2,390	2,500		2,640	2,770
Spirits	1,909		1,980	2,030	2,140		2,240	2,370
Other alcoholic beverages(b)	927		910	960	1,000		1,050	1,130
Other customs duty
Textiles, clothing and footwear	789		650	380	290		210	180
Passenger motor vehicles	921		700	420	400		400	450
Other imports	1,631		1,600	1,120	1,010		990	1,090
less: Refunds and drawbacks	319		420	420	420		420	420
Total excise and customs duty	35,321		33,800	34,300	35,710		36,980	38,830
Carbon pricing mechanism	4,363		1,630	0	0		0	0
Agricultural levies	495		492	472	480		488	494
Other taxes	3,012		3,016	3,573	3,781		3,861	3,945
Indirect taxation receipts	95,815		94,502	96,930	102,452		107,432	113,149
Taxation receipts	338,368		351,452	370,140	396,422		422,762	452,469
Sales of goods and services	8,579		9,218	9,475	11,735		16,274	20,008
Interest received	3,128		3,131	3,334	3,537		3,692	4,069
Dividends	2,978		4,121	4,623	3,305		3,745	4,054
Other non‑taxation receipts	7,268		9,386	10,407	7,463		7,122	7,632
Non‑taxation receipts	21,954		25,856	27,840	26,040		30,833	35,764
Total receipts	360,322		377,309	397,980	422,461		453,595	488,233
Memorandum:
Total excise	26,075		24,050	24,820	25,880		27,000	28,380
Total customs duty	9,246		9,750	9,480	9,830		9,980	10,450
Capital gains tax(c)	7,200		8,900	11,500	13,900		15,900	17,400
Medicare and DisabilityCare Australia levy	10,500		14,050	14,870	15,570		16,290	17,100

(a) Net receipts from the MRRT are expected to be $40 million in 2014‑15 which represents the net receipt impact across different revenue heads. This includes the offsetting reductions in company tax (through deductibility) and interactions with other taxes. The MRRT will not apply beyond 30 September 2014.

(b) Other alcoholic beverages are those not exceeding 10 per cent by volume of alcohol (excluding beer, brandy and wine).

(c) Capital gains tax is part of gross other individuals, company tax and superannuation fund taxes. The 2013‑14 reported figure is an estimate.