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Australian Government Coat of Arms

Budget | 2015-16

Budget 2015-16
Australian Government Coat of Arms, Budget 2015-16
  1. budget.gov.au
  2. Budget 2015
  3. Budget Paper No. 1
  4. Statement 4
  5. Variations in revenue estimates

Statement 4 (continued)

Variations in revenue estimates

The revenue estimates are the accrual accounting equivalent of the cash‑based receipts estimates. Changes in revenue are generally driven by the same factors — policy as well as parameter and other variations — as receipts. The timing of revenue and receipts estimates may vary. Table 8 provides a reconciliation of the Budget's revenue estimates with those at the 2014‑15 MYEFO.

Table 8: Reconciliation of total Australian Government general government revenue estimates from the 2014‑15 MYEFO
  Estimates   Projections    
  2014‑15 2015‑16 2016‑17   2017‑18   Total
  $m $m $m   $m   $m
Revenue at 2014‑15 MYEFO 385,876 411,682 441,036   473,174   1,711,769
Per cent of GDP 24.0 24.5 25.0   25.5    
Changes from 2014‑15 MYEFO to 2015‑16 Budget              
Effect of policy decisions(a) 45 ‑162 39   463   385
Effect of parameter and other variations ‑1,823 ‑6,170 ‑7,649   ‑7,459   ‑23,101
Total variations ‑1,778 ‑6,332 ‑7,610   ‑6,996   ‑22,716
Revenue at 2015‑16 Budget 384,098 405,350 433,427   466,178   1,689,053

(a) Excludes secondary impacts on public debt interest of policy decisions and offsets from the Contingency Reserve for decisions taken.

Since the 2014‑15 MYEFO, total revenue has been revised down by around $1.8 billion in 2014‑15 and $22.7 billion over the four years to 2017‑18. The factors affecting revisions to tax receipts are also at play with regards to revenue.

The changes to individual heads of revenue accrual estimates since the 2014‑15 MYEFO are shown in Tables 9 and 10. For the five year accrual table, the accrual equivalent of Table 7, see Budget Statement 9, Note 3.

Revenue and receipts historical tables that have previously been published in Appendix C of Budget Statement 5 are now available online and can be accessed at www.budget.gov.au.

Table 9: Reconciliation of 2014‑15 general government (accrual) revenue
  Estimates   Change on MYEFO
  MYEFO Budget    
  $m $m   $m %
Individuals and other withholding taxes          
Gross income tax withholding 168,430 167,860   ‑570 ‑0.3
Gross other individuals 40,470 40,600   130 0.3
less: Refunds 27,500 27,300   ‑200 ‑0.7
Total individuals and other withholding tax 181,400 181,160   ‑240 ‑0.1
Fringe benefits tax 4,480 4,480   0 0.0
Company tax 70,930 69,900   ‑1,030 ‑1.5
Superannuation fund taxes 7,130 6,200   ‑930 ‑13.0
Minerals resource rent tax(a) 60 60   0 0.0
Petroleum resource rent tax 1,770 1,640   ‑130 ‑7.3
Income taxation revenue 265,770 263,440   ‑2,330 ‑0.9
Goods and services tax 56,820 56,690   ‑130 ‑0.2
Wine equalisation tax 810 820   10 1.2
Luxury car tax 400 510   110 27.5
Excise and customs duty          
Petrol 5,970 6,020   50 0.8
Diesel 8,960 8,830   ‑130 ‑1.5
Other fuel products 3,280 2,980   ‑300 ‑9.1
Tobacco 8,320 8,290   ‑30 ‑0.4
Beer 2,430 2,350   ‑80 ‑3.3
Spirits 1,970 1,980   10 0.5
Other alcoholic beverages(b) 950 910   ‑40 ‑4.2
Other customs duty          
Textiles, clothing and footwear 590 650   60 10.2
Passenger motor vehicles 800 700   ‑100 ‑12.5
Other imports 1,570 1,600   30 1.9
less: Refunds and drawbacks 420 420   0 0.0
Total excise and customs duty 34,420 33,890   ‑530 ‑1.5
Carbon pricing mechanism 0 0   0 0.0
Agricultural levies 454 492   37 8.2
Other taxes 3,285 3,275   ‑10 ‑0.3
Indirect taxation revenue 96,190 95,677   ‑513 ‑0.5
Taxation revenue 361,959 359,117   ‑2,843 ‑0.8
Sales of goods and services 9,190 9,277   87 0.9
Interest 3,987 3,653   ‑334 ‑8.4
Dividends 3,396 4,796   1,401 41.2
Other non‑taxation revenue 7,344 7,255   ‑89 ‑1.2
Non‑taxation revenue 23,917 24,981   1,064 4.5
Total revenue 385,876 384,098   ‑1,778 ‑0.5
Memorandum:          
Total excise 25,360 24,140   ‑1,220 ‑4.8
Total customs duty 9,060 9,750   690 7.6
Capital gains tax(c) 8,900 8,900   0 0.0
Medicare and DisabilityCare Australia levy 14,130 14,050   ‑80 ‑0.6

(a) Net revenue from the MRRT is expected to be $40 million in 2014‑15 which represents the net revenue impact across different revenue heads. This includes the offsetting reductions in company tax (through deductibility) and interactions with other taxes. The MRRT will not apply beyond 30 September 2014.

(b) Other alcoholic beverages are those not exceeding 10 per cent by volume of alcohol (excluding beer, brandy and wine).

(c) Capital gains tax is part of gross other individuals, company tax and superannuation fund taxes.

Table 10: Reconciliation of 2015‑16 general government (accrual) revenue
  Estimates   Change on MYEFO
  MYEFO Budget    
  $m $m   $m %
Individuals and other withholding taxes          
Gross income tax withholding 180,660 178,460   ‑2,200 ‑1.2
Gross other individuals 44,550 43,800   ‑750 ‑1.7
less: Refunds 28,100 28,000   ‑100 ‑0.4
Total individuals and other withholding tax 197,110 194,260   ‑2,850 ‑1.4
Fringe benefits tax 5,030 5,020   ‑10 ‑0.2
Company tax 72,500 69,800   ‑2,700 ‑3.7
Superannuation fund taxes 9,760 9,180   ‑580 ‑5.9
Minerals resource rent tax(a) 0 0   0 0.0
Petroleum resource rent tax 1,700 1,420   ‑280 ‑16.5
Income taxation revenue 286,100 279,680   ‑6,420 ‑2.2
Goods and services tax 60,390 60,330   ‑60 ‑0.1
Wine equalisation tax 840 840   0 0.0
Luxury car tax 360 450   90 25.0
Excise and customs duty          
Petrol 6,200 6,130   ‑70 ‑1.1
Diesel 9,370 9,140   ‑230 ‑2.5
Other fuel products 3,170 2,850   ‑320 ‑10.1
Tobacco 9,580 9,390   ‑190 ‑2.0
Beer 2,480 2,400   ‑80 ‑3.2
Spirits 2,030 2,030   0 0.0
Other alcoholic beverages(b) 990 960   ‑30 ‑3.0
Other customs duty          
Textiles, clothing and footwear 310 380   70 22.6
Passenger motor vehicles 520 420   ‑100 ‑19.2
Other imports 1,070 1,120   50 4.7
less: Refunds and drawbacks 420 420   0 0.0
Total excise and customs duty 35,300 34,400   ‑900 ‑2.5
Carbon pricing mechanism 0 0   0 0.0
Agricultural levies 478 472   ‑6 ‑1.3
Other taxes 3,781 3,902   121 3.2
Indirect taxation revenue 101,149 100,394   ‑755 ‑0.7
Taxation revenue 387,249 380,074   ‑7,175 ‑1.9
Sales of goods and services 9,258 9,542   284 3.1
Interest 4,672 4,083   ‑589 ‑12.6
Dividends 3,170 3,143   ‑27 ‑0.9
Other non‑taxation revenue 7,333 8,508   1,175 16.0
Non‑taxation revenue 24,433 25,276   843 3.5
Total revenue 411,682 405,350   ‑6,332 ‑1.5
Memorandum:          
Total excise 26,990 24,920   ‑2,070 ‑7.7
Total customs duty 8,310 9,480   1,170 14.1
Capital gains tax(c) 11,300 11,500   200 1.8
Medicare and DisabilityCare Australia levy 15,040 14,870   ‑170 ‑1.1

(a) The MRRT will not apply beyond 30 September 2014.

(b) Other alcoholic beverages are those not exceeding 10 per cent by volume of alcohol (excluding beer, brandy and wine).

(c) Capital gains tax is part of gross other individuals, company tax and superannuation fund taxes.