Statement 4: Revenue
(continued)
Variations in revenue estimates
The revenue estimates are the accrual accounting equivalent of the cash based receipts estimates. Changes in revenue are generally driven by the same factors as receipts. Revenue amounts are usually higher than the cash equivalents because the amounts are generally recognised when they are owed rather than when they are paid. The differences between the accrual and cash amounts therefore generally reflect timing differences. Table 8 provides a reconciliation of the Budget's revenue estimates with those at the 2015‑16 MYEFO.
| Estimates | Projections | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015‑16 | 2016‑17 | 2017‑18 | 2018-19 | Total | |||
| $m | $m | $m | $m | $m | |||
| Revenue at 2015‑16 MYEFO | 400,953 | 423,200 | 452,581 | 487,094 | 1,763,828 | ||
| Changes from 2015‑16 MYEFO to 2016‑17 Budget | |||||||
| Effect of policy decisions(a) | 419 | -1,251 | 1,038 | 160 | 367 | ||
| Effect of parameter and other variations | -4,977 | -5,088 | -4,094 | -2,884 | -17,044 | ||
| Total variations | -4,558 | -6,339 | -3,056 | -2,724 | -16,677 | ||
| Revenue at 2016‑17 Budget | 396,396 | 416,862 | 449,524 | 484,370 | 1,747,151 | ||
(a) Excludes secondary impacts on public debt interest of policy decisions and offsets from the Contingency Reserve for decisions taken.
Since the 2015‑16 MYEFO, total revenue has been revised down by around $6.3 billion in 2016‑17 and $16.7 billion over the four years to 2018‑19. The factors affecting revisions to tax receipts are also at play with regards to revenue. Key drivers of the change in revenue include revisions to total wages and profits, weaker‑than‑expected collections and the impact of new policy.
The changes to individual heads of revenue accrual estimates since the 2015‑16 MYEFO are shown in Tables 9 and 10. For the five year accrual table, the accrual equivalent of Table 7, see Budget Statement 9, Note 3.
Additional revenue and receipts historical tables are available online and can be accessed at www.budget.gov.au.
| Estimates | Change on MYEFO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MYEFO | Budget | ||||
| $m | $m | $m | % | ||
| Individuals and other withholding taxes | |||||
| Gross income tax withholding | 176,550 | 175,510 | -1,040 | -0.6 | |
| Gross other individuals | 44,310 | 44,850 | 540 | 1.2 | |
| less: Refunds | 27,500 | 27,800 | 300 | 1.1 | |
| Total individuals and other withholding tax | 193,360 | 192,560 | -800 | -0.4 | |
| Fringe benefits tax | 4,610 | 4,590 | -20 | -0.4 | |
| Company tax | 67,996 | 65,000 | -2,996 | -4.4 | |
| Superannuation fund taxes | 7,780 | 6,710 | -1,070 | -13.8 | |
| Petroleum resource rent tax | 960 | 840 | -120 | -12.5 | |
| Income taxation revenue | 274,706 | 269,700 | -5,006 | -1.8 | |
| Goods and services tax | 59,790 | 60,040 | 250 | 0.4 | |
| Wine equalisation tax | 850 | 880 | 30 | 3.5 | |
| Luxury car tax | 520 | 590 | 70 | 13.5 | |
| Excise and customs duty | |||||
| Petrol | 6,220 | 6,220 | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Diesel | 9,350 | 9,490 | 140 | 1.5 | |
| Other fuel products | 2,423 | 2,243 | -180 | -7.4 | |
| Tobacco | 9,150 | 9,410 | 260 | 2.8 | |
| Beer | 2,340 | 2,370 | 30 | 1.3 | |
| Spirits | 1,970 | 2,040 | 70 | 3.6 | |
| Other alcoholic beverages(a) | 910 | 910 | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Other customs duty | |||||
| Textiles, clothing and footwear | 440 | 470 | 30 | 6.8 | |
| Passenger motor vehicles | 550 | 570 | 20 | 3.6 | |
| Other imports | 1,370 | 1,550 | 180 | 13.1 | |
| less: Refunds and drawbacks | 420 | 420 | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Total excise and customs duty | 34,303 | 34,853 | 550 | 1.6 | |
| Agricultural levies | 475 | 514 | 39 | 8.2 | |
| Other taxes(b) | 5,279 | 5,346 | 67 | 1.3 | |
| Indirect taxation revenue | 101,217 | 102,223 | 1,006 | 1.0 | |
| Taxation revenue | 375,923 | 371,923 | -4,000 | -1.1 | |
| Sales of goods and services(b) | 7,956 | 7,697 | -260 | -3.3 | |
| Interest | 4,519 | 3,506 | -1,013 | -22.4 | |
| Dividends | 3,841 | 5,564 | 1,723 | 44.9 | |
| Other non-taxation revenue | 8,714 | 7,706 | -1,008 | -11.6 | |
| Non-taxation revenue | 25,030 | 24,472 | -558 | -2.2 | |
| Total revenue | 400,953 | 396,396 | -4,558 | -1.1 | |
| Memorandum: | |||||
| Total excise | 21,393 | 21,423 | 30 | 0.1 | |
| Total customs duty | 12,910 | 13,430 | 520 | 4.0 | |
| Capital gains tax(c) | 10,600 | 10,600 | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Medicare and DisabilityCare Australia levy | 15,014 | 14,970 | -44 | -0.3 | |
(a) Other alcoholic beverages are those not exceeding 10 per cent by volume of alcohol (excluding beer, brandy and wine).
(b) Visa application charges were reclassified in the 2015‑16 MYEFO from non‑taxation revenue to taxation revenue to reflect a sustained change in the nature of revenue. The back‑casting relating to the reclassification is reflected in Statement 10 — Historical Series from 2003‑04.
(c) Capital gains tax is part of gross other individuals, company tax and superannuation funds taxes.
| Estimates | Change on MYEFO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MYEFO | Budget | ||||
| $m | $m | $m | % | ||
| Individuals and other withholding taxes | |||||
| Gross income tax withholding | 185,950 | 183,380 | -2,570 | -1.4 | |
| Gross other individuals | 47,740 | 47,300 | -440 | -0.9 | |
| less: Refunds | 28,900 | 29,350 | 450 | 1.6 | |
| Total individuals and other withholding tax | 204,790 | 201,330 | -3,460 | -1.7 | |
| Fringe benefits tax | 4,780 | 4,760 | -20 | -0.4 | |
| Company tax | 71,600 | 70,100 | -1,500 | -2.1 | |
| Superannuation fund taxes | 9,150 | 7,510 | -1,640 | -17.9 | |
| Petroleum resource rent tax | 1,070 | 850 | -220 | -20.6 | |
| Income taxation revenue | 291,390 | 284,550 | -6,840 | -2.3 | |
| Goods and services tax | 63,700 | 63,340 | -360 | -0.6 | |
| Wine equalisation tax | 860 | 910 | 50 | 5.8 | |
| Luxury car tax | 510 | 570 | 60 | 11.8 | |
| Excise and customs duty | |||||
| Petrol | 6,400 | 6,450 | 50 | 0.8 | |
| Diesel | 9,640 | 9,870 | 230 | 2.4 | |
| Other fuel products | 2,440 | 2,235 | -205 | -8.4 | |
| Tobacco | 9,700 | 10,160 | 460 | 4.7 | |
| Beer | 2,330 | 2,390 | 60 | 2.6 | |
| Spirits | 2,010 | 2,100 | 90 | 4.5 | |
| Other alcoholic beverages(a) | 920 | 940 | 20 | 2.2 | |
| Other customs duty | |||||
| Textiles, clothing and footwear | 300 | 310 | 10 | 3.3 | |
| Passenger motor vehicles | 590 | 590 | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Other imports | 1,140 | 1,170 | 30 | 2.6 | |
| less: Refunds and drawbacks | 420 | 420 | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Total excise and customs duty | 35,050 | 35,795 | 745 | 2.1 | |
| Agricultural levies | 485 | 494 | 9 | 1.9 | |
| Other taxes(b) | 5,547 | 5,625 | 78 | 1.4 | |
| Indirect taxation revenue | 106,151 | 106,733 | 582 | 0.5 | |
| Taxation revenue | 397,541 | 391,283 | -6,258 | -1.6 | |
| Sales of goods and services(b) | 9,641 | 9,249 | -391 | -4.1 | |
| Interest | 4,938 | 4,280 | -658 | -13.3 | |
| Dividends | 3,050 | 3,242 | 192 | 6.3 | |
| Other non-taxation revenue | 8,030 | 8,807 | 777 | 9.7 | |
| Non-taxation revenue | 25,659 | 25,579 | -80 | -0.3 | |
| Total revenue | 423,200 | 416,862 | -6,339 | -1.5 | |
| Memorandum: | |||||
| Total excise | 21,550 | 21,785 | 235 | 1.1 | |
| Total customs duty | 13,500 | 14,010 | 510 | 3.8 | |
| Capital gains tax(c) | 12,300 | 12,300 | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Medicare and DisabilityCare Australia levy | 15,592 | 15,440 | -152 | -1.0 | |
(a) Other alcoholic beverages are those not exceeding 10 per cent by volume of alcohol (excluding beer, brandy and wine).
(b) Visa application charges were reclassified in the 2015‑16 MYEFO from non‑taxation revenue to taxation revenue to reflect a sustained change in the nature of revenue. The back‑casting relating to the reclassification is reflected in Statement 10 — Historical Series from 2003‑04.
(c) Capital gains tax is part of gross other individuals, company tax and superannuation funds taxes.