Document
Index
Budget Paper 1
Budget Statement 6
|
Document
Index |
|
|
Estimates of the major categories of revenue, for 1999-2000 to 2002-03, are shown in
Table 7.
Table 7: Forward Estimates of Revenue
| 1999-00 | 2000-01 | 2001-02 | 2002-03 | |||||
| Estimate $b |
Change on 1998-99 % |
Estimate $b |
Change on 1999-00 % |
Estimate $b |
Change on 2000-01 % |
Estimate $b |
Change on 2001-02 % |
|
| Individuals Tax | 81.1 | 4.9 | 71.4 | -12.0 | 77.9 | 9.1 | 82.4 | 5.9 |
| Per cent of GDP | 13.1 | 10.9 | 11.2 | 11.1 | ||||
| Other Income Tax | 28.9 | 7.8 | 39.7 | 37.5 | 36.4 | -8.5 | 38.7 | 6.6 |
| Per cent of GDP | 4.7 | 6.0 | 5.2 | 5.2 | ||||
| Total Income Tax | 110.0 | 5.7 | 111.1 | 1.0 | 114.2 | 2.8 | 121.2 | 6.1 |
| Per cent of GDP | 17.7 | 16.9 | 16.4 | 16.4 | ||||
| Indirect Tax | 32.0 | 3.5 | 22.1 | -30.8 | 22.0 | -0.7 | 23.1 | 5.0 |
| Per cent of GDP | 5.2 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.1 | ||||
| Total Tax(a) | 147.8 | 4.9 | 139.2 | -5.8 | 142.5 | 2.3 | 150.7 | 5.8 |
| Per cent of GDP | 23.8 | 21.2 | 20.4 | 20.4 | ||||
| Non-Tax Revenue | 15.0 | 20.4 | 11.3 | -25.1 | 11.3 | 0.2 | 12.3 | 9.3 |
| Per cent of GDP | 2.4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | ||||
| TOTAL REVENUE | 162.8 | 6.2 | 150.5 | -7.6 | 153.8 | 2.2 | 163.1 | 6.1 |
| Per cent of GDP | 26.3 | 22.9 | 22.1 | 22.1 | ||||
The revenue projections have been made on the conventional assumption of no change in
current policy. Therefore, the forward estimates of revenue are principally affected by
projected growth in economic parameters and policy measures contained in this and previous
budgets, including A New Tax System.
Taxation revenue generally mirrors economic activity during periods of fairly steady
economic growth (as depicted by the economic projections in this Budget), but tends to
swing more sharply during periods of economic contraction and expansion and more sharply
than nominal GDP growth. The forward revenue estimates are also particularly susceptible
to changes in the extent of tax minimisation and avoidance action by taxpayers.
Total revenue as a proportion of GDP is expected to:
Individuals tax falls in 2000-01 due to the introduction of lower personal tax rates in
that year. Other income tax rises sharply in 2000-01 before falling in 2001-02. This is a
result of the move to the new company tax payment arrangements, which result in some
companies being assessed under both the new and existing arrangements in 2000-01. This
results in higher accrued revenue in that year, even though companies will be allowed to
defer payment of part of their liability to later years.
Indirect tax falls sharply in 2000-01 as a result of the abolition of WST. Revenue from
the GST is not reported as the Commonwealth will be collecting this tax on an agency basis
for the States and Territories.
Table 8 reconciles revenue estimates at the time of the Mid-Year Economic and
Fiscal Outlook 1998-99 (1998-99 MYEFO) and the 1999-2000 Budget in
terms of policy decisions and parameter and other variations.
Table 8: Reconciliation of Revenue Estimates
| 1998-99 $m |
1999-00 $m |
2000-01 $m |
2001-02 $m |
|
| Revenue at 1998-99 MYEFO(a) | 153224 | 158492 | 151258 | 154327 |
| Changes from MYEFO to 1999-2000 Budget | ||||
| Effect of policy decisions | -118 | -124 | -121 | -21 |
| Effect of parameter and other variations | 243 | 4459 | -642 | -546 |
| Total variations | 125 | 4336 | -764 | -568 |
| Revenue at 1999-2000 Budget | 153349 | 162828 | 150494 | 153759 |
