Statement 5 (continued)
Variations in receipts estimates
Table 4 reconciles the 2014‑15 Budget's estimates of total receipts, which include non‑tax receipts, with the 2013‑14 Budget and the 2013‑14 MYEFO estimates. These differences reflect the impact of parameter and other variations and policy decisions.
| Estimates | Projections | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013‑14 $m |
2014‑15 $m |
2015‑16 $m |
2016‑17 $m |
Total $m | |||
| Receipts at 2013‑14 Budget | 375,993 | 401,171 | 428,931 | 453,642 | 1,659,738 | ||
| Changes from 2013‑14 Budget to 2013‑14 MYEFO | |||||||
| Effect of policy decisions | 2,741 | -2,374 | -1,163 | -43 | -839 | ||
| Effect of parameter and other variations | -13,804 | -16,054 | -18,684 | -20,783 | -69,325 | ||
| Total variations | -11,063 | -18,428 | -19,847 | -20,826 | -70,164 | ||
| Receipts at 2013‑14 MYEFO | 364,930 | 382,743 | 409,084 | 432,817 | 1,589,574 | ||
| Changes from 2013‑14 MYEFO to 2014‑15 Budget | |||||||
| Effect of policy decisions | -2 | 673 | 1,916 | 2,786 | 5,373 | ||
| Effect of parameter and other variations | -1,432 | 2,362 | -573 | 1,247 | 1,604 | ||
| Total variations | -1,434 | 3,035 | 1,343 | 4,033 | 6,977 | ||
| Receipts at 2014‑15 Budget | 363,496 | 385,778 | 410,427 | 436,849 | 1,596,551 | ||
(a) Includes expected Future Fund earnings.
Since the 2013‑14 MYEFO, total receipts have been revised up by $7.0 billion in the four years to 2016‑17, reflecting an upwards revision of $1.6 billion from parameter and other variations, and an increase of $5.4 billion of policy decisions. Excluding GST, total receipts have been revised up $2.0 billion in 2014‑15 and $2.5 billion over the four years to 2016‑17.
Source: Treasury.
The changes in the individual revenue heads relative to the 2013‑14 MYEFO are shown in Table 5 and Table 6 for 2013‑14 and 2014‑15 respectively.
| Estimates | Change on MYEFO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MYEFO $m |
Budget $m |
$m | % | ||
| Individuals and other withholding taxes | |||||
| Gross income tax withholding | 157,200 | 156,700 | -500 | -0.3 | |
| Gross other individuals | 34,000 | 34,200 | 200 | 0.6 | |
| less: Refunds | 27,200 | 27,100 | -100 | -0.4 | |
| Total individuals and other withholding tax | 164,000 | 163,800 | -200 | -0.1 | |
| Fringe benefits tax | 4,090 | 4,090 | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Company tax | 69,000 | 68,000 | -1,000 | -1.4 | |
| Superannuation fund taxes | 6,860 | 6,530 | -330 | -4.8 | |
| Minerals resource rent tax(a) | 500 | 170 | -330 | -66.0 | |
| Petroleum resource rent tax | 1,750 | 1,400 | -350 | -20.0 | |
| Income taxation receipts | 246,200 | 243,990 | -2,210 | -0.9 | |
| Goods and services tax | 50,248 | 51,003 | 755 | 1.5 | |
| Wine equalisation tax | 740 | 760 | 20 | 2.7 | |
| Luxury car tax | 400 | 430 | 30 | 7.5 | |
| Excise and customs duty | |||||
| Petrol | 5,850 | 6,000 | 150 | 2.6 | |
| Diesel | 8,990 | 8,990 | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Other fuel products | 3,820 | 3,690 | -130 | -3.4 | |
| Tobacco | 8,350 | 7,850 | -500 | -6.0 | |
| Beer | 2,360 | 2,370 | 10 | 0.4 | |
| Spirits | 1,990 | 1,890 | -100 | -5.0 | |
| Other alcoholic beverages(b) | 970 | 960 | -10 | -1.0 | |
| Other customs duty | |||||
| Textiles, clothing and footwear | 750 | 770 | 20 | 2.7 | |
| Passenger motor vehicles | 930 | 920 | -10 | -1.1 | |
| Other imports | 1,570 | 1,650 | 80 | 5.1 | |
| less: Refunds and drawbacks | 260 | 360 | 100 | 38.5 | |
| Total excise and customs duty | 35,320 | 34,730 | -590 | -1.7 | |
| Carbon pricing mechanism | 7,180 | 7,180 | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Agricultural levies | 459 | 476 | 17 | 3.8 | |
| Other taxes | 2,933 | 3,074 | 140 | 4.8 | |
| Indirect taxation receipts | 97,280 | 97,653 | 373 | 0.4 | |
| Taxation receipts | 343,480 | 341,643 | -1,837 | -0.5 | |
| Sales of goods and services | 8,626 | 8,764 | 138 | 1.6 | |
| Interest received | 3,591 | 3,210 | -381 | -10.6 | |
| Dividends | 2,883 | 3,040 | 157 | 5.4 | |
| Other non-taxation receipts | 6,350 | 6,840 | 490 | 7.7 | |
| Non-taxation receipts | 21,451 | 21,854 | 403 | 1.9 | |
| Total receipts | 364,930 | 363,496 | -1,434 | -0.4 | |
| Memorandum: | |||||
| Total excise | 26,400 | 25,720 | -680 | -2.6 | |
| Total customs duty | 8,920 | 9,010 | 90 | 1.0 | |
| Capital gains tax(c) | 7,900 | 7,500 | -400 | -5.1 | |
| Medicare and DisabilityCare Australia levy(d) | 9,950 | 10,480 | 530 | 5.3 | |
(a) Net receipts from the MRRT is expected to be $100 million in 2013‑14 which represents the net receipt impact across different revenue heads. These include offsetting reductions in company tax (through deductibility) and interactions with other taxes. The Government has announced the MRRT will not apply beyond 30 June 2014.
(b) Other alcoholic beverages are those not exceeding 10 per cent by volume of alcohol (excluding beer, brandy and wine).
(c) Capital gains tax is part of gross other individuals, company tax and superannuation fund taxes.
(d) At the 2013‑14 MYEFO, the Medicare and DisabilityCare Australia levy estimates were based on when the liability to the levy is assessed. From the 2014‑15 Budget, estimates are based on when collections relating to the levy are received.
| Estimates | Change on MYEFO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MYEFO $m |
Budget $m |
$m | % | ||
| Individuals and other withholding taxes | |||||
| Gross income tax withholding | 168,800 | 169,400 | 600 | 0.4 | |
| Gross other individuals | 36,600 | 37,100 | 500 | 1.4 | |
| less: Refunds | 28,000 | 27,700 | -300 | -1.1 | |
| Total individuals and other withholding tax | 177,400 | 178,800 | 1,400 | 0.8 | |
| Fringe benefits tax | 4,470 | 4,360 | -110 | -2.5 | |
| Company tax | 70,500 | 71,600 | 1,100 | 1.6 | |
| Superannuation fund taxes | 8,760 | 7,680 | -1,080 | -12.3 | |
| Minerals resource rent tax(a) | 300 | 0 | -300 | -100.0 | |
| Petroleum resource rent tax | 2,100 | 1,950 | -150 | -7.1 | |
| Income taxation receipts | 263,530 | 264,390 | 860 | 0.3 | |
| Goods and services tax | 52,948 | 53,978 | 1,030 | 1.9 | |
| Wine equalisation tax | 780 | 780 | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Luxury car tax | 380 | 360 | -20 | -5.3 | |
| Excise and customs duty | |||||
| Petrol | 5,650 | 5,950 | 300 | 5.3 | |
| Diesel | 9,180 | 9,250 | 70 | 0.8 | |
| Other fuel products | 3,580 | 3,710 | 130 | 3.6 | |
| Tobacco | 9,110 | 8,710 | -400 | -4.4 | |
| Beer | 2,360 | 2,400 | 40 | 1.7 | |
| Spirits | 2,090 | 1,930 | -160 | -7.7 | |
| Other alcoholic beverages(b) | 990 | 980 | -10 | -1.0 | |
| Other customs duty | |||||
| Textiles, clothing and footwear | 600 | 600 | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Passenger motor vehicles | 920 | 820 | -100 | -10.9 | |
| Other imports | 1,600 | 1,650 | 50 | 3.1 | |
| less: Refunds and drawbacks | 260 | 360 | 100 | 38.5 | |
| Total excise and customs duty | 35,820 | 35,640 | -180 | -0.5 | |
| Carbon pricing mechanism | 1,695 | 1,695 | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Agricultural levies | 470 | 469 | -1 | -0.1 | |
| Other taxes | 2,980 | 3,059 | 79 | 2.7 | |
| Indirect taxation receipts | 95,073 | 95,982 | 909 | 1.0 | |
| Taxation receipts | 358,603 | 360,372 | 1,769 | 0.5 | |
| Sales of goods and services | 8,442 | 8,910 | 468 | 5.5 | |
| Interest received | 3,544 | 3,657 | 113 | 3.2 | |
| Dividends | 3,891 | 4,257 | 366 | 9.4 | |
| Other non-taxation receipts | 8,263 | 8,583 | 320 | 3.9 | |
| Non-taxation receipts | 24,140 | 25,407 | 1,267 | 5.2 | |
| Total receipts | 382,743 | 385,778 | 3,035 | 0.8 | |
| Memorandum: | |||||
| Total excise | 26,640 | 26,370 | -270 | -1.0 | |
| Total customs duty | 9,180 | 9,270 | 90 | 1.0 | |
| Capital gains tax(c) | 10,700 | 9,000 | -1,700 | -15.9 | |
| Medicare and DisabilityCare Australia levy(d) | 10,380 | 14,160 | 3,780 | 36.4 | |
| Temporary Budget Repair Levy(e) | - | 600 | - | - | |
(a) Net receipts from the MRRT is expected to be zero in 2014‑15 which represents the net receipt impact across different revenue heads. These include offsetting reductions in company tax (through deductibility) and interactions with other taxes.
(b) Other alcoholic beverages are those not exceeding 10 per cent by volume of alcohol (excluding beer, brandy and wine).
(c) Capital gains tax is part of gross other individuals, company tax and superannuation fund taxes.
(d) At the 2013‑14 MYEFO, the Medicare and DisabilityCare Australia levy estimates were based on when the liability to the levy is assessed. From the 2014‑15 Budget, estimates are based on when collections relating to the levy are received.
(e) This represents the net impact of the Temporary Budget Repair Levy on individuals and other withholding taxes. An additional $680 million is expected to be raised over the forward estimates through the temporary increase in the FBT rate that was announced as part of the temporary levy.
Variations in receipts can stem from either policy changes or parameter and other variations — that is, recent economic conditions, the updated economic outlook, year‑to‑date tax collections, and other non‑policy factors. The key economic parameters that influence receipts are shown in Table 7. Analysis of the sensitivity of the tax receipts estimates to changes in the economic outlook is provided in Budget Statement 3 (Appendix A).
| Estimates | Projections | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013‑14 | 2014‑15 | 2015‑16 | 2016‑17 | 2017‑18 | ||
| Revenue parameters at 2014‑15 Budget | ||||||
| Nominal gross domestic product (non-farm) | 4 | 3 1/4 | 4 3/4 | 5 | 5 | |
| Change since 2013‑14 MYEFO | 1/4 | - 1/4 | 0 | 1/4 | na | |
| Compensation of employees (non-farm)(b) | 3 1/4 | 4 1/4 | 4 1/4 | 5 1/4 | 5 1/4 | |
| Change since 2013‑14 MYEFO | 1/4 | 1/4 | -1 1/2 | - 1/4 | na | |
| Corporate gross operating surplus(c) | 5 1/4 | 1/2 | 5 | 4 | 4 1/4 | |
| Change since 2013‑14 MYEFO | 1 1/4 | -2 1/4 | 2 3/4 | 1 1/2 | na | |
| Unincorporated business income (non-farm) | 1 1/4 | 1 1/4 | 2 3/4 | 5 | 5 | |
| Change since 2013‑14 MYEFO | 0 | 1/2 | -2 | 1/4 | na | |
| Property income(d) | 10 1/2 | 8 1/2 | 12 1/4 | 5 | 5 | |
| Change since 2013‑14 MYEFO | - 1/4 | 2 | 7 1/4 | 0 | na | |
| Consumption subject to GST | 4 1/2 | 5 | 5 1/4 | 5 1/2 | 5 3/4 | |
| Change since 2013‑14 MYEFO | 1 1/4 | 3/4 | - 1/4 | 0 | na | |
(a) Current prices, per cent change on previous years. Changes since the 2013‑14 MYEFO are percentage points and may not reconcile due to rounding.
(b) Compensation of employees measures total remuneration earned by employees.
(c) Corporate GOS is an Australian System of National Accounts measure of company profits, gross of depreciation.
(d) Property income measures income derived from rent, dividends, and interest.
na not applicable.
Relative to the 2013‑14 MYEFO, parameter and other variations have reduced tax receipts by $1.8 billion in 2013‑14, increased tax receipts by $1.2 billion in 2014‑15, and decreased them by $2.9 billion over the four years to 2016‑17 (Chart 3). Excluding GST, from the effect of parameter and other variations, forecast tax receipts have declined by $2.6 billion in 2013‑14, increased by around $150 million in 2014‑15 and declined by around $7.4 billion over the four years to 2016‑17.
Source: Treasury.
In aggregate, tax receipts are expected to grow by 4.7 per cent in 2013‑14 and 5.5 per cent in 2014‑15. At a disaggregated level, different revenue heads are expected to grow at different rates.
Individuals' income and other withholding taxation receipts
Receipts from gross income tax withholding (ITW) are forecast to grow by 4.6 per cent in 2013‑14 and 8.1 per cent in 2014‑15. Excluding measures, relative to the 2013‑14 MYEFO, softer than expected wages growth has resulted in a downward revision to gross ITW receipts of $6.1 billion over the four years to 2016‑17. ITW receipts have also been affected by new policy decisions, including the Temporary Budget Repair Levy from 2014‑15.
Gross receipts from other individuals (OI) are expected to grow by 2.7 per cent in 2013‑14 and 8.5 per cent in 2014‑15. Since the 2013‑14 MYEFO, OI receipts excluding measures, are expected to be $200 million higher in 2013‑14 and around $250 million higher over the four years. These upwards revisions are driven by slightly stronger than expected collections in 2013‑14 and expected wages and salaries growth in 2013‑14 and 2014‑15. OI has also been affected by the Temporary Budget Repair Levy from 2014‑15.
Income tax refunds for individuals, which have a negative effect on receipts, are expected to grow by 1.1 per cent in 2013‑14 and 2.2 per cent in 2014‑15. Relative to the 2013‑14 MYEFO, refunds are expected to be lower (an increase in overall tax receipts) excluding measures, revised down $100 million in 2013‑14 and $1.5 billion over the four years to 2016‑17. This has been driven by weaker than expected payouts for refunds in 2013‑14 and lower anticipated individuals income tax over the forward estimates. The removal of the Mature Age Workers Tax Offset and Dependent Spouse Tax Offset, which had become outdated or poorly targeted, are expected to also affect refunds.
Fringe benefits tax
Tax receipts from fringe benefits tax (FBT) are forecast to grow by 4.3 per cent in 2013‑14 and 6.6 per cent in 2014‑15. Excluding measures, tax receipts from FBT are unchanged in 2013‑14 but $450 million lower over the four years to 2016‑17 relative to the 2013‑14 MYEFO. The downward revision over the forward estimates is driven by softer expected wage growth. FBT receipts have also been affected by the Temporary Budget Repair Levy from 2014‑15.
Company tax
Company tax receipts are expected to grow by 1.6 per cent in 2013‑14 and 5.3 per cent in 2014‑15. Relative to the 2013‑14 MYEFO, tax receipts from companies excluding measures are expected to be around $1.0 billion lower in 2013‑14 owing to lower than expected collections relating to the 2012‑13 income year. Further information on the reasons for this weakness will become available with more tax return data. Over the four years to 2016‑17, company tax receipts have been revised up by around $4.7 billion reflecting higher corporate profitability.
Superannuation fund taxes
Superannuation funds receipts are expected to decline by 14.8 per cent in 2013‑14 and grow by 17.6 per cent in 2014‑15. The large growth rate in 2014‑15 is driven by superannuation capital gains tax recovering from historical lows of the previous four years. Excluding measures, since the 2013‑14 MYEFO, receipts are expected to be around $330 million lower in 2013‑14 and $2.9 billion over the four years to 2016‑17 largely reflecting a revision to anticipated superannuation capital gains tax with weaker wages also contributing.
Resource rent taxes
Since the 2013‑14 MYEFO, minerals resource rent tax (MRRT) receipts have been revised down by $330 million in 2013‑14 and $300 million in 2014‑15. The 2014‑15 nil estimate takes into account balancing payments and refunds from the 2013‑14 year.
Petroleum resource rent tax (PRRT) receipts are forecast to decline by 7.1 per cent in 2013‑14 and grow by 39.3 per cent in 2014‑15. The growth rate in 2014‑15 is driven by increased production from 2013‑14 to 2014‑15 as well as the timing of payments. Excluding measures, PRRT receipts have been revised down by $350 million in 2013‑14 and around $1.3 billion over the four years to 2016‑17 since the 2013‑14 MYEFO. These revisions reflect lower expected profitability of PRRT liable entities.
Box 1: The MRRT has raised much less than originally forecast
This Budget confirms that receipts from the mining tax are a small fraction of what was originally estimated under the former government.
When the resource super profits tax (RSPT) was announced in May 2010, it was forecast to raise $12.0 billion in its first two years, and $49.5 billion over five years.
In July 2010, the former government announced it would introduce a modified mining tax from 1 July 2012, the minerals resource rent tax (MRRT), in place of the RSPT. Forecast receipts from the MRRT were $10.5 billion over the first two years, and $26.5 billion over five years (Chart A).
In contrast, the Final Budget Outcome for 2012‑13 revealed that in its first year, the MRRT raised just $200 million, or 5 per cent of the amount originally estimated. The shortfall in collections was driven by a combination of lower Australian dollar commodity prices and design elements of the MRRT.
In 2013‑14, net receipts from the MRRT are expected to be even lower, around $100 million, partly due to some companies claiming refunds from overpaid MRRT instalments from the previous year (this is down from $700 million forecast in the 2013‑14 Budget and 2013 PEFO). The 2014‑15 Budget forecast of $100 million is less than 2 per cent of the amount originally envisaged.
The MRRT will be repealed from 1 July 2014.
Note: Estimates of net receipts from the RSPT and MRRT represent the net impact across different revenue heads. These include offsetting reduction in company tax (through deductibility) and interactions with other taxes.
Source: Treasury
Goods and services tax
Receipts from GST are forecast to grow by 5.0 per cent in 2013‑14 and 5.8 per cent in 2014‑15. Since the 2013‑14 MYEFO, GST receipts excluding measures have been revised up $750 million in 2013‑14 and $4.5 billion over the four years to 2016‑17 as a result of stronger expected consumption growth.
Excise and customs duty
Excise and customs duty receipts are forecast to grow by 3.5 per cent in 2013‑14 and by 2.6 per cent in 2014‑15. Excluding measures, excise and customs duty receipts have been revised down from the 2013‑14 MYEFO by $600 million in 2013‑14 and by $2.7 billion over the four years to 2016‑17. This is primarily a result of lower expected clearances of tobacco and alcohol. New policy decisions, particularly fuel excise indexation, have increased expected excise and customs duty receipts.
Carbon pricing mechanism
Since the 2013‑14 MYEFO, there has been no revision to expected carbon tax receipts. Carbon tax receipts are expected to be $7.2 billion in 2013‑14 and $1.7 billion in 2014‑15. The 2014‑15 forecast carbon tax is a result of final acquittals of carbon tax liabilities for 2013‑14.
Other sales taxes
Other sales taxes include the wine equalisation tax (WET) and the luxury car tax (LCT).
Since the 2013‑14 MYEFO, estimates of WET receipts are broadly unchanged and expected to grow by 4.8 per cent in 2013‑14 and 2.6 per cent in 2014‑15.
LCT receipts are expected to decline by 1.0 per cent in 2013‑14 and 16.3 per cent in 2014‑15. Excluding measures, LCT receipts have been revised up $30 million in 2013‑14, while over the four years to 2016‑17 they are expected to decline by $190 million since the 2013‑14 MYEFO. This downward revision reflects lower expected sales volumes and prices of motor vehicles subject to LCT.
Non‑taxation receipts
Non‑taxation receipts (including Future Fund earnings) are expected to decline by 11 per cent in 2013‑14 and grow by 16 per cent in 2014‑15. This largely relates to proceeds from the sale of spectrum licences.
Non‑taxation receipts have been revised up from the 2013‑14 MYEFO by $403 million in 2013‑14 and $4.8 billion over the four years to 2016‑17. This primarily reflects higher forecasts of royalties and returns from unclaimed superannuation accounts in 2013‑14 ($455 million) and recognition of State and Territory contributions to the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) for the first time ($3.1 billion over the four years to 2016‑17).
| Actual | Estimates | Projections | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012‑13 $m |
2013‑14 $m |
2014‑15 $m |
2015‑16 $m |
2016‑17 $m |
2017‑18 $m |
|||
| Individuals and other withholding taxes | ||||||||
| Gross income tax withholding | 149,807 | 156,700 | 169,400 | 181,500 | 193,400 | 206,700 | ||
| Gross other individuals | 33,294 | 34,200 | 37,100 | 40,700 | 44,700 | 48,800 | ||
| less: Refunds | 26,801 | 27,100 | 27,700 | 28,600 | 29,800 | 31,800 | ||
| Total individuals and other withholding tax | 156,300 | 163,800 | 178,800 | 193,600 | 208,300 | 223,700 | ||
| Fringe benefits tax | 3,922 | 4,090 | 4,360 | 4,930 | 5,210 | 5,100 | ||
| Company tax | 66,911 | 68,000 | 71,600 | 75,400 | 80,000 | 84,700 | ||
| Superannuation fund taxes | 7,661 | 6,530 | 7,680 | 10,380 | 11,280 | 11,810 | ||
| Minerals resource rent tax(a) | 310 | 170 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Petroleum resource rent tax | 1,507 | 1,400 | 1,950 | 1,900 | 1,900 | 1,900 | ||
| Income taxation receipts | 236,610 | 243,990 | 264,390 | 286,210 | 306,690 | 327,210 | ||
| Goods and services tax | 48,596 | 51,003 | 53,978 | 57,290 | 60,723 | 64,099 | ||
| Wine equalisation tax | 725 | 760 | 780 | 810 | 850 | 880 | ||
| Luxury car tax | 434 | 430 | 360 | 310 | 330 | 360 | ||
| Excise and customs duty | ||||||||
| Petrol | 5,990 | 6,000 | 5,950 | 6,150 | 6,450 | 6,850 | ||
| Diesel | 8,594 | 8,990 | 9,250 | 9,610 | 10,020 | 10,490 | ||
| Other fuel products | 3,466 | 3,690 | 3,710 | 3,510 | 3,690 | 3,930 | ||
| Tobacco | 7,660 | 7,850 | 8,710 | 9,640 | 10,680 | 10,980 | ||
| Beer | 2,257 | 2,370 | 2,400 | 2,470 | 2,590 | 2,730 | ||
| Spirits | 1,931 | 1,890 | 1,930 | 1,980 | 2,080 | 2,190 | ||
| Other alcoholic beverages | 944 | 960 | 980 | 1,010 | 1,060 | 1,120 | ||
| Other customs duty | ||||||||
| Textiles, clothing and footwear | 676 | 770 | 600 | 430 | 450 | 480 | ||
| Passenger motor vehicles | 892 | 920 | 820 | 610 | 630 | 660 | ||
| Other imports | 1,499 | 1,650 | 1,650 | 1,680 | 1,790 | 1,880 | ||
| less: Refunds and drawbacks | 354 | 360 | 360 | 360 | 360 | 360 | ||
| Total excise and customs duty | 33,554 | 34,730 | 35,640 | 36,730 | 39,080 | 40,950 | ||
| Carbon pricing mechanism | 3,631 | 7,180 | 1,695 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Agricultural levies | 463 | 476 | 469 | 474 | 486 | 496 | ||
| Other taxes | 2,412 | 3,074 | 3,059 | 3,462 | 3,533 | 3,567 | ||
| Indirect taxation receipts | 89,815 | 97,653 | 95,982 | 99,076 | 105,001 | 110,352 | ||
| Taxation receipts | 326,426 | 341,643 | 360,372 | 385,286 | 411,691 | 437,562 | ||
| Sales of goods and services | 9,071 | 8,764 | 8,910 | 9,121 | 11,279 | 15,893 | ||
| Interest received | 3,561 | 3,210 | 3,657 | 3,893 | 3,977 | 4,088 | ||
| Dividends | 3,420 | 3,040 | 4,257 | 2,461 | 2,675 | 3,751 | ||
| Other non-taxation receipts | 8,575 | 6,840 | 8,583 | 9,665 | 7,227 | 6,689 | ||
| Non-taxation receipts | 24,627 | 21,854 | 25,407 | 25,141 | 25,158 | 30,422 | ||
| Total receipts | 351,052 | 363,496 | 385,778 | 410,427 | 436,849 | 467,985 | ||
| Memorandum: | ||||||||
| Total excise | 25,412 | 25,720 | 26,370 | 27,300 | 28,850 | 30,270 | ||
| Total customs duty | 8,143 | 9,010 | 9,270 | 9,430 | 10,230 | 10,680 | ||
| Capital gains tax(b) | 7,000 | 7,500 | 9,000 | 12,000 | 14,400 | 16,700 | ||
| Medicare and DisabilityCare Australia levy | 9,788 | 10,480 | 14,160 | 15,160 | 15,890 | 16,650 | ||
| Temporary Budget Repair Levy(c) | - | - | 600 | 780 | 850 | 190 | ||
(a) Net receipts from MRRT for 2013‑14 and 2014‑15 can be obtained from Table 5 and 6.
(b) CGT is part of other individuals, companies and superannuation fund taxes. The 2012‑13 figure is an estimate.
(c) This represents the net impact of the Temporary Budget Repair Levy on individuals and other withholding taxes. An additional $680 million is expected to be raised over the forward estimates through the temporary increase in the FBT rate that was announced as part of the temporary levy.
Revenue variations since the 2013‑14 MYEFO
The revenue estimates are the accrual accounting equivalent of the cash‑based receipts estimates. Changes in revenue are generally driven by the same factors — policy as well as parameter and other variations — as receipts. The timing of revenue and receipts estimates may vary. Table 9 provides a reconciliation of the Budget's revenue estimates with those at the 2013‑14 MYEFO.
| Estimates | Projections | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013‑14 $m |
2014‑15 $m |
2015‑16 $m |
2016‑17 $m |
Total $m | |||||||
| Revenue at 2013‑14 MYEFO | 373,922 | 387,882 | 417,423 | 445,032 | 1,624,259 | ||||||
| Changes from 2013‑14 MYEFO to 2014‑15 Budget | |||||||||||
| Effect of policy decisions(a) | 1 | 720 | 2,032 | 2,762 | 5,515 | ||||||
| Effect of parameter and other variations | 343 | 2,746 | 157 | 2,046 | 5,292 | ||||||
| Total variations | 344 | 3,466 | 2,189 | 4,808 | 10,807 | ||||||
| Revenue at 2014‑15 Budget | 374,267 | 391,348 | 419,612 | 449,840 | 1,635,067 | ||||||
(a) Excludes secondary impacts on public debt interest of policy decisions and offsets from the Contingency Reserve for decisions taken.
Since the 2013‑14 MYEFO, total revenue has been revised up around $300 million in 2013‑14 and $10.8 billion over the four years to 2016‑17. The factors affecting revisions to tax receipts are also at play with regards to revenue.
The changes to individual revenue head accrual estimates since the 2013‑14 MYEFO are shown in Tables 10 and 11. For the five year accrual table, the accrual equivalent of Table 8, see Budget Statement 9, Note 3.
Revenue and Receipts historical tables that have previously been published in Appendix C of Statement 5 are now available online and can be accessed at www.budget.gov.au.
| Estimates | Change on MYEFO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MYEFO $m |
Budget $m |
$m | % | ||
| Individuals and other withholding taxes | |||||
| Gross income tax withholding | 158,510 | 158,300 | -210 | -0.1 | |
| Gross other individuals | 36,650 | 37,180 | 530 | 1.4 | |
| less: Refunds | 27,200 | 27,100 | -100 | -0.4 | |
| Total individuals and other withholding tax | 167,960 | 168,380 | 420 | 0.3 | |
| Fringe benefits tax | 4,140 | 4,140 | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Company tax | 70,400 | 69,400 | -1,000 | -1.4 | |
| Superannuation fund taxes | 6,990 | 6,580 | -410 | -5.9 | |
| Minerals resource rent tax(a) | 500 | 170 | -330 | -66.0 | |
| Petroleum resource rent tax | 1,900 | 1,470 | -430 | -22.6 | |
| Income taxation revenue | 251,890 | 250,140 | -1,750 | -0.7 | |
| Goods and services tax | 52,680 | 54,321 | 1,641 | 3.1 | |
| Wine equalisation tax | 750 | 810 | 60 | 8.0 | |
| Luxury car tax | 400 | 430 | 30 | 7.5 | |
| Excise and customs duty | |||||
| Petrol | 5,740 | 5,890 | 150 | 2.6 | |
| Diesel | 8,820 | 8,820 | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Other fuel products | 3,730 | 3,600 | -130 | -3.5 | |
| Tobacco | 8,260 | 7,770 | -490 | -5.9 | |
| Beer | 2,320 | 2,330 | 10 | 0.4 | |
| Spirits | 1,990 | 1,890 | -100 | -5.0 | |
| Other alcoholic beverages(b) | 970 | 960 | -10 | -1.0 | |
| Other customs duty | |||||
| Textiles, clothing and footwear | 750 | 770 | 20 | 2.7 | |
| Passenger motor vehicles | 930 | 920 | -10 | -1.1 | |
| Other imports | 1,580 | 1,660 | 80 | 5.1 | |
| less: Refunds and drawbacks | 260 | 360 | 100 | 38.5 | |
| Total excise and customs duty | 34,830 | 34,250 | -580 | -1.7 | |
| Carbon pricing mechanism | 7,340 | 7,340 | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Agricultural levies | 459 | 476 | 17 | 3.8 | |
| Other taxes | 3,086 | 3,190 | 104 | 3.4 | |
| Indirect taxation revenue | 99,545 | 100,817 | 1,272 | 1.3 | |
| Taxation revenue | 351,434 | 350,956 | -478 | -0.1 | |
| Sales of goods and services | 8,680 | 8,853 | 173 | 2.0 | |
| Interest | 3,730 | 3,445 | -286 | -7.7 | |
| Dividends | 3,792 | 4,288 | 496 | 13.1 | |
| Other non-taxation revenue | 6,286 | 6,724 | 438 | 7.0 | |
| Non-taxation revenue | 22,488 | 23,310 | 822 | 3.7 | |
| Total revenue | 373,922 | 374,267 | 344 | 0.1 | |
| Memorandum: | |||||
| Total excise | 25,900 | 25,230 | -670 | -2.6 | |
| Total customs duty | 8,930 | 9,020 | 90 | 1.0 | |
| Capital gains tax(c) | 7,900 | 7,500 | -400 | -5.1 | |
| Medicare and DisabilityCare Australia levy(d) | 9,950 | 10,480 | 530 | 5.3 | |
(a) Net revenue from the MRRT is expected to be $100 million in 2013‑14 which represents the net revenue impact across different revenue heads. These include offsetting reductions in company tax (through deductibility) and interactions with other taxes. The Government has announced the MRRT will not apply beyond 30 June 2014.
(b) Other alcoholic beverages are those not exceeding 10 per cent by volume of alcohol (excluding beer, brandy and wine).
(c) Capital gains tax is part of gross other individuals, company tax and superannuation fund taxes.
(d) At the 2013‑14 MYEFO, the Medicare and DisabilityCare Australia levy estimates were based on when the liability to the levy is assessed. From the 2014‑15 Budget, estimates are based on when collections relating to the levy are received.
| Estimates | Change on MYEFO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MYEFO $m |
Budget $m |
$m | % | ||
| Individuals and other withholding taxes | |||||
| Gross income tax withholding | 170,210 | 171,170 | 960 | 0.6 | |
| Gross other individuals | 39,500 | 40,120 | 620 | 1.6 | |
| less: Refunds | 28,000 | 27,700 | -300 | -1.1 | |
| Total individuals and other withholding tax | 181,710 | 183,590 | 1,880 | 1.0 | |
| Fringe benefits tax | 4,550 | 4,440 | -110 | -2.4 | |
| Company tax | 72,330 | 73,230 | 900 | 1.2 | |
| Superannuation fund taxes | 8,930 | 7,870 | -1,060 | -11.9 | |
| Minerals resource rent tax(a) | 300 | 0 | -300 | -100.0 | |
| Petroleum resource rent tax | 2,100 | 2,060 | -40 | -1.9 | |
| Income taxation revenue | 269,920 | 271,190 | 1,270 | 0.5 | |
| Goods and services tax | 55,710 | 56,970 | 1,260 | 2.3 | |
| Wine equalisation tax | 790 | 790 | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Luxury car tax | 380 | 360 | -20 | -5.3 | |
| Excise and customs duty | |||||
| Petrol | 5,670 | 5,970 | 300 | 5.3 | |
| Diesel | 9,205 | 9,280 | 75 | 0.8 | |
| Other fuel products | 3,590 | 3,730 | 140 | 3.9 | |
| Tobacco | 9,130 | 8,730 | -400 | -4.4 | |
| Beer | 2,370 | 2,410 | 40 | 1.7 | |
| Spirits | 2,090 | 1,930 | -160 | -7.7 | |
| Other alcoholic beverages(b) | 990 | 980 | -10 | -1.0 | |
| Other customs duty | |||||
| Textiles, clothing and footwear | 600 | 600 | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Passenger motor vehicles | 920 | 820 | -100 | -10.9 | |
| Other imports | 1,600 | 1,650 | 50 | 3.1 | |
| less: Refunds and drawbacks | 260 | 360 | 100 | 38.5 | |
| Total excise and customs duty | 35,905 | 35,740 | -165 | -0.5 | |
| Carbon pricing mechanism | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | |
| Agricultural levies | 470 | 469 | -1 | -0.1 | |
| Other taxes | 3,182 | 3,295 | 114 | 3.6 | |
| Indirect taxation revenue | 96,437 | 97,624 | 1,188 | 1.2 | |
| Taxation revenue | 366,356 | 368,814 | 2,458 | 0.7 | |
| Sales of goods and services | 8,496 | 8,928 | 432 | 5.1 | |
| Interest | 4,060 | 4,229 | 169 | 4.2 | |
| Dividends | 2,448 | 2,570 | 122 | 5.0 | |
| Other non-taxation revenue | 6,522 | 6,807 | 285 | 4.4 | |
| Non-taxation revenue | 21,525 | 22,534 | 1,008 | 4.7 | |
| Total revenue | 387,882 | 391,348 | 3,466 | 0.9 | |
| Memorandum: | |||||
| Total excise | 26,725 | 26,470 | -255 | -1.0 | |
| Total customs duty | 9,180 | 9,270 | 90 | 1.0 | |
| Capital gains tax(c) | 10,700 | 9,000 | -1,700 | -15.9 | |
| Medicare and DisabilityCare Australia levy(d) | 10,380 | 14,160 | 3,780 | 36.4 | |
| Temporary Budget Repair Levy(e) | - | 600 | - | - | |
(a) Net revenue from the MRRT is expected to be zero in 2014‑15 which represents the net revenue impact across different revenue heads. These include offsetting reductions in company tax (through deductibility) and interactions with other taxes.
(b) Other alcoholic beverages are those not exceeding 10 per cent by volume of alcohol (excluding beer, brandy and wine).
(c) Capital gains tax is part of gross other individuals, company tax and superannuation fund taxes.
(d) At the 2013‑14 MYEFO, the Medicare and DisabilityCare Australia levy estimates were based on when the liability to the levy is assessed. From the 2014‑15 Budget, estimates are based on when collections relating to the levy are received.
(e) This represents the net impact of the Temporary Budget Repair Levy on individuals and other withholding taxes. An additional $680 million is expected to be raised over the forward estimates through the temporary increase in the FBT rate that was announced as part of the temporary levy.




